Will Only a Few Car Makers Survive the Next Decade? Here’s Why That’s Not So Simple
Why Do Experts Keep Predicting a Car Industry Shakeout?
If you’ve spent any time reading automotive news, you’ve probably seen the same headline pop up every few years: “Soon, only a handful of car companies will survive.” Industry analysts love to make bold predictions, especially when the market is shifting—like it is now, with electric vehicles, self-driving tech, and global supply chain headaches. The idea is that big players will gobble up or outlast the smaller ones, leaving just a few giants standing.
But is this really how things play out? History suggests otherwise. The car industry has always been a wild ride, full of unexpected twists. Sure, some brands disappear, but new ones pop up too. It’s a lot messier—and more interesting—than the doomsayers make it sound.
What Can We Learn from Past Predictions About Car Brands?
Let’s take a quick trip down memory lane. Back in the 1980s, people were already saying the same thing: “Only the biggest car makers will survive.” Fast forward to today, and the landscape is still crowded. Some names have vanished, but dozens of new brands—especially from China and emerging markets—have sprung up.
Remember when barcodes were new, and it seemed like only a few products would dominate supermarket shelves? Now, walk into any store and you’ll see thousands of options. The same goes for car wheels: once, you could identify a car by its hubcap; now, the variety is staggering. The world doesn’t always consolidate—it diversifies.
Are Smaller Car Companies Really Doomed?
It’s true, not every car company will make it through the next decade. The industry is expensive, competitive, and technology is moving fast. Some smaller brands will get bought out or run out of steam. Even a few big names might stumble—think back to the 2008 financial crisis, when giants like General Motors and Chrysler needed government bailouts to survive.
But here’s the twist: barriers to entry are lower than ever. Thanks to contract manufacturing, digital marketing, and global supply chains, it’s possible for niche brands to carve out a space. Just look at the explosion of electric vehicle startups in the last five years. According to BloombergNEF, more than 400 EV manufacturers are registered in China alone as of 2023. Not all will survive, but the sheer number shows how dynamic the market is.
Why Do New Car Brands Keep Appearing?
There’s a simple reason: people want different things from their cars. Some want luxury, others want affordability, and plenty are looking for something unique. As wealth grows globally—especially in Asia and Africa—the number of people able to buy cars is at an all-time high. The International Energy Agency reported that global car sales hit a record 86 million units in 2023, with growth driven by emerging markets.
This demand creates space for new brands to experiment. Think of how Tesla went from a Silicon Valley curiosity to a global powerhouse in just 15 years. Or how BYD, once known for batteries, is now outselling Volkswagen in China. The market rewards innovation, and there’s always someone willing to take a risk.
What About Big Companies Swallowing the Little Guys?
Mergers and acquisitions are nothing new in the car world. Sometimes, big companies buy smaller ones for their technology, their brand, or just to eliminate competition. But that doesn’t mean the industry will shrink to just a few names. Often, these deals lead to more variety, not less. Stellantis, formed from the merger of Fiat Chrysler and PSA Group, now manages 14 brands—everything from Jeep to Maserati—each with its own identity.
And let’s not forget the role of government policy. Many countries are pushing for local car production to create jobs and boost their economies. This support can help smaller or newer brands survive, even when the odds seem stacked against them.
Is Predicting the Future of Car Companies a Fool’s Game?
Honestly, it’s almost impossible to say exactly how many car makers will be around in ten years. The industry is too complex, and the world changes fast. Who could have predicted, for example, the rise of electric vehicles, or the way ride-sharing would change how people think about owning a car?
If you’re a betting person, you might have better luck guessing how many different wheel designs will be on the road in 2034. The outcome? Game-changing. But not in the way the experts always expect.
What’s the Real Takeaway for Car Buyers and Enthusiasts?
If you love cars, the good news is that choice isn’t going anywhere. There will be shakeouts, sure. Some brands will fade, and new ones will take their place. But the idea that we’ll be left with just a handful of options? That’s a stretch.
The car industry is resilient, creative, and—above all—unpredictable. So next time you hear someone say only a few car makers will survive, take it with a grain of salt. The road ahead is wide open, and there’s plenty of room for surprises.