Over 40 countries’ leading virologists have issued a stark warning: the H5N1 bird flu virus poses a growing threat to global health. In a joint commentary published in The Lancet Regional Health – Americas, experts from the Global Virus Network (GVN) urged world leaders to ramp up pandemic preparedness before the virus evolves into a form capable of sustained human-to-human transmission.
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Their message is clear—urgent measures are needed now. These include stronger surveillance, biosecurity enhancements, and faster vaccine development. “The situation with H5N1 demands heightened vigilance and collaboration,” said Dr. Christian Bréchot, president emeritus of the GVN. “Early detection and robust surveillance are critical.”
Virus Now Spreads Across Species and States
Originally confined to wild birds and poultry, H5N1 has now jumped species, infecting dairy cattle and domestic cats across the United States. Since early 2024, over 168 million birds, 1,650 poultry flocks, and more than 995 dairy cattle herds have been affected in all 50 U.S. states. Human infections—at least 70 confirmed, with one death—have occurred in 13 U.S. states and Canada.
Notably, some human cases have emerged without any known animal contact, alarming scientists about possible viral adaptation. This shift suggests the virus may be evolving to spread more easily between humans. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) currently classifies H5N1 as a “moderate pandemic risk.”
High Mortality, Cross-Species Transmission Raise Alarms
First detected in 1996, H5N1 is one of the most dangerous influenza A subtypes, with a human mortality rate exceeding 50%. Human symptoms mimic seasonal flu—fever, sore throat, and cough—but can escalate to pneumonia, encephalitis, or multi-organ failure. Domestic cats, often infected through raw meat or milk, can shed the virus, creating new pathways for transmission. Fatality rates in cats may reach 90%.
The virus is primarily spread by migratory birds through saliva, nasal discharge, and droppings, making containment difficult. With continued mutation, H5N1 could combine with seasonal influenza strains, increasing the risk of a pandemic.
Preparedness Strategies
Drawing on lessons from COVID-19, the GVN scientists outlined a comprehensive action plan. Key recommendations include:
- Expanded genomic surveillance and data sharing
- Wastewater and animal product testing
- Accelerated clinical trials for vaccines and therapeutics
- Rapid development of self-diagnostic kits
- PPE and frontline protection for farmworkers
- Targeted funding for outbreak response teams
- Research into predictive viral mutation markers
Elyse Stachler from the Broad Institute emphasized the need for “a robust nationwide monitoring system” to isolate affected animals quickly.
Economic and Food Supply Impact
Beyond health risks, the outbreak has devastated the poultry industry, driving up egg prices and disrupting food supply chains. Milk contamination fears—though pasteurisation neutralizes the virus—have shaken consumer confidence in the dairy sector.
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In countries like India, where no public H5N1 vaccine is available, prevention is critical. Experts advise avoiding live bird markets, using gloves and masks when handling poultry, maintaining strict hygiene, and ensuring poultry is cooked to at least 75°C.