India’s ruling political elite and Pakistani military now find themselves locked into a dangerous brinksmanship – no one knows where and how will it end? Unless a body of sane men and women emerges on the scene in both countries, and from their diasporas across the world- one that can rise above the fray and develop the courage to challenge the partisan national narratives engineered by Pakistani military and BJP – a huge human disaster at some point will be inevitable. Clock is ticking!
On the 14th of May, two days after Indian PM Narendra Modi’s speech declaring a “New Normal” in South Asia, Pakistan’s PM Shahbaz Sharif – now suddenly basking in the undeserved glory of the so called “Four Days’ War” – congratulated the country’s armed forces at Pasroor Garrison near Sialkot, for avenging the 1971 War against India. To many – especially in India, who have learnt to see Pakistan only through the lens of contempt – it may sound ludicrous and laughable.
But to Shahbaz Sharif’s audience it resonates and for good reasons! Why would it be ludicrous to one side and historical vindication to the other? Because, 1971 was not just a military defeat at a battle ground, but a decisive turning point in the history of South Asia.
Till that point, India and Pakistan -erstwhile progenies of the British Raj – were seen as roughly equal in the perceptions of major powers. Pakistan, before its painful dismemberment, was a unique state geographically bridging Central Asia and the Middle East in the north with South East Asia at the other end – now Bangladesh. Pakistan’s generals have long argued that surrender of its beleaguered and fatigued garrison in Dhaka on 16th December 1971 was not a military but political defeat. Technically it’s true. No army could have prevailed in the circumstances the Pakistani garrison- cut off from it’s base – found itself in. But unfortunately, the political disorder that led to it was also the creation of Pakistani generals.
Popular narratives are not informed by academic debate. Two generations of Indians – increasingly joined by younger Pakistanis frustrated with Pakistani politics dominated by the military – have seen Pakistan Army through the lens of its surrender in Paltan Grounds of Dhaka. Army had little to defend itself against that toxic Molotov cocktail complete with stories of rapes, massacres, images of soldiers laying down their arms and a sad and sullen Gen. Niazi signing the surrender document. If opium war of 1839 started a century of humiliation for Chinese, 1971 marks the beginning of half a century of disgrace for Pakistan Army.
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Shahbaz Sharif’s comments can thus be understood in that context. He is implying, or has been asked to suggest that in this “Four Days High Tech War” – mostly fought by Pakistan Air Force (PAF) with Chinese J-10Cs, Pakistan Army has finally emerged from the dishonor of 1971. Can a 25 minute high tech aerial combat, with the support of Chinese satellites, compensate the shame of losing half your country is certainly debatable – but the problem we now face in South Asia is bigger than that.
Has Pakistan Avenged 1971?
How will this reassertion of self esteem, and new found confidence by Pakistan Army play out in the changed circumstances in South Asia? Indian elite today not only perceives itself as superior but has brought itself to such a level of disdain and contempt for Pakistan, that they feel insulted by the mere mention of the old traditional term of Indo-Pakistan. This is described contemptuously as unacceptable “hyphenation”?
Trump’s recent comments mentioning India and Pakistan in the same breath even as warring states has unnerved Indians. Indian Foreign Minister, S Jaishankar’s book, “Why Bharat Matters” is a good study into that state of mind – where India falls in the small club of powers like the US. China and Russia. And even within that club, it has a civilization that is more deeper, mysterious and majestic. The contempt, for Pakistan and Pakistanis, that flows from the top of Indian political elite then finds expression in the often repeated terms like “Bikharistan” or “Porkistan” etc on social media.
Once you are empowered with this background, you begin to understand why Narendra Modi, Indian PM, is facing severe backlash, from his Hindutva support base, after his acceptance of the American mediated Ceasefire. Donald Trump, eager to make his CV for Noble Peace Prize, ensured that he and his cabinet announce ceasefire before India and Pakistan. While Pakistanis, forever American clients, gladly welcomed that – but it was a major embarrassment to an India imbued with the spirit of Pundit Nehru.
It was in this troubled state of mind, that Modi – perceived by his supporters to be even bigger than Nehru – delivered his address to the nation, on 12th May. Without the slightest hint of the US role, he declared that Operation Sindoor, initiated in the morning of 7th May has not ended but has merely been paused, on Pakistan’s request. He then defined the “New Normal” in dealings with terrorists and their sponsor: Pakistan.
Modi’s New Normal for Pakistan?
And according to that paradigm any new terrorist action will be responded with the resumption of Operation Sindoor. As per Indian defense analyst, Praveen Sawheny: Modi is forcing Indian army to be in a continuous state of war. More problematic is the definition of “Act of Terror” because many acts of violence keep on happening in the Indian controlled Jammu & Kashmir. One just happened in Pulwama in the last 24 hours. Not all of these can be inspired from across the border.
While Pehalgam terrorism with 26 men brutally shot in front of their wives and children – after identifying them as Hindus – was unusually painful and grotesque but what will the new threshold of defining an act that will warrant a resumption of the Operation Sindoor raises very difficult questions! Keep in mind that Indian strikes killed at least 31 and injured 50 plus across Pakistan on 7th May and since then any where between 100-200 people have been killed in India and Pakistan in the mayhem that followed. And this was not even the beginning of what Trump describes as “millions would have died”.
While “Four Days War” between India and Pakistan shook the world, Indian Govt to this day remains unable to provide any credible evidence linking Pehalgam terrorism with Pakistan. Yet, Indians who remember blowing up of Bombay Stock Exchange in 1993, killing fields of Mumbai in 2008, Uri, Pathankot attacks of 2016 and Pulwama attack on CRPF and the media debate around them (especially the evidence that exists around Mumbai 26/11) instinctively conclude that Pakistani military may be behind this too. But could popular prima-facie analysis be relied upon for declaring war on another nuclear power? All Indian analysts could discuss, endlessly, and ad-nauseam on media, was Gen. Asim Munir’s speech to Pakistani diasporas, in March of this year, in which he asserted in a rather awkward fashion that Muslims and Hindus are essentially different.
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After the ceasefire, Shekhkar Gupta, founder editor of The Print, came up with a theory that SBI, a US company – owned by a controversial Pakistani businessman, had been obtaining high resolution images of Pehalgam from Maxar Technologies, and attempted connecting SBI with Pakistani state agencies – but soon another story by Ankit Kumar in “India Today” challenged his facts and their interpretation. And now Shekhar Gupta story looks like an over ambitious attempt to implicate Pakistani state. If the pronouncements of Trump, are to be believed then India and Pakistan briefly stared into a nuclear armageddon in the early hours of Sarturday, 10th May – only because Indians believed, in their minds, that Pakistan’s Army Chief must have ordered the massacre to make himself popular in Pakistan. They have no proof whatsoever. Modi government, afraid of contrary opinion, did something which has seldom been done by an Indian government. It ordered Google to block all Pakistani News channels and Youtube podcasters. It then forced X (formerly Twitter) to shut down more than 8000 accounts inside India – including prominent US and other western opinion makers. In a move, hugely embarrassing for Modi government, X management went public informing the world that Delhi has forced it to block these accounts and is forced to do it because its Indian staff is being harassed.
India’s Pain & of Pakistan?
If this is now the state of democratic India under BJP; most Pakistanis, have been living since ages, in a misinformed world of their own, controlled by intelligence agencies. They are totally oblivious to the way Indian narrative and sentiment has shaped around alleged Pakistani terrorism over the past thirty years. They see most terror incidents, in India , with suspicion or define them as “False Flag” and to them “Pehlgam Massacre” was another in the series of such acts; this time to block Pakistan’s waters from the Indus system which they correctly point out, was a longstanding BJP agenda. Defining Pehalgam massacre as false flag is a bizarre disconnect from reality. And nothing could be more painful to the Indians – especially when you factor in the memories of ten infantry trained gunmen enacting an orgy of blood and fire in India’s largest metropolis in Nov, 2008.
If Pakistanis are disconnected from Indian pain, hardly anyone in India has cared to analyze how Pakistanis must have felt when in 2023-24, Indian Agency, RAW, carried out almost 21 assassinations on Pakistani soil – and theses murders were celebrated by the Indian media and key politicians. These were apparently, old retired Kashmir related assets of ISI – and included some Sikhs that had taken refuge inside Pakistan. Fast forward to 2025; AK Bharti, Indian Air Force Chief, recently amused both Indians and Pakistanis, when in a briefing, in the second week of May, he mentioned that, Indian Air Force only targeted terrorists inside Pakistan and was surprised when it was attacked by the Pakistan Air Force in response.
This idea later found mention in PM Modi’s speech on 12th May. What it means? It means that BJP’s India – in the footsteps of US and Israel – has given itself extra-territorial jurisdiction in fighting what it describes terrorism. But what about supporting BLA – an outfit defined as terrorist by many countries including US and UK? BLA’s audacious attack on Jaffar Express – carrying almost 400 passengers mostly soldiers proceeding on leave – in March 2025, literally one month before the Pehalgam Massacre reflected BLA’s growing capacities.
While Pakistani military may have hidden the full extent of its losses – it is believed that more that 100 may have perished in that hostage siege. From Pakistani lens, these growing capacities are not possible without RAW’s help and guidance. Just like, from Indian lens, Pehalgam massacre is not possible with out ISI support. In August 2024, BLA killed more than 100 Pakistani soldiers and ranks across Baluchistan to commemorate Nawab Akbar Bugti’s killing in 2006. Many across India, mentioned BLA & Jaffar Express while reflecting on the Pehalgam tragedy but hardly anyone ventured to connect the dots. Could the two tragedies be somehow linked in a tit for tat?
Pakistan Army: Strong Fighting Machine?
In the days before Indian missile strikes, many retired senior Indian officers – that appeared on social media platforms – after the Pehalgam terrorism were candid in admitting that Pakistani army is a strong fighting machine and there are no good options, available to India for a quick domination.
Yet, the Indian public opinion, fed on the mixed diet of BJP statements, aspirations and Bollywood films that turned those into reality for cinema- like the 2012 Ek tha Tiger starring Salman Khan and Katrina Kaif – kept believing that powerful Indian military will quickly teach a lesson to Pakistan Army, and Azad Kashmir will be conquered once Modi Ji decides to act. Soon thereafter, Pakistan will break apart like a house of cards with brave Baluch declaring their independence. Watch Bard of Blood, 2015 TV series made on RAW’s heroic fight inside Pakistani Baluchistan. In short, memories of 1971 inspired Indians and haunted Pakistanis. All were up for a shock between 7th and 10th May.
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Ambassador Ajay Bisaria, India’s last High Commissioner to Pakistan, till 2019, mentions in his book, Anger Management, how Gen. Bajwa and his generals went into panic when Narendra Modi had threatened using BrahMos Missiles against Pakistan after the capture of Wing Commander Abhi Nandhan. Bisaria, an articulate diplomat, not only mentions that in his book but explained that in many interviews to Indian media. He used the expression, “Pakistanis really got spooked”. His impressions were supported by the infamous statement of Ayyaz Sadiq, former Speaker of the National Assembly who had described Gen. Bajwa in a state of panic. This narrative further consolidated the widespread view that Pakistani army does not even have the nerve to stand up to the superior Indian military.
All of that crashed in the morning of 7th May 2025, when around 72 Indian Air Force fighter jets – including the pride of IAF, the Rafales – were confronted by 42 or 45 PAF planes including the J-10c armed with PL-15 missiles. Much has been talked about and written. Suffice it to say that most ambitious ideas of dominating the escalation ladder evaporated that morning. What followed over the next 48 hours is far from clear. Why India sent drones when Pakistani military was clearly trying to avoid escalation after the Indian loss of planes? Was Operation Sindoor conceived to be multiphase or it kept improvising given that India was not able to achieve what it had set out to? We will find answers to these questions when the warrior mentality gives way to sober reflection on both sides.
Challenge Ahead: Triumphant Military & Wounded BJP?
Both India and Pakistan boast of hitting the other hard. Pakistanis believe that India had approached the US for ceasefire because in the early hours of Saturday 10th May, Pakistan successfully targeted 24 locations in India destroyed one S-400 system and many airstrips and other such facilites. India describes its damages on ground as pin pricks, but has not admitted of its plane losses. Pakistan has not commented on why almost all Indian missiles hit their intended 24 locations in nine Pakistani cities on 7th May and how almost all eleven of its bases were hit on the last day of the war. And while difficult questions are being asked in India, no one in Pakistan wants to risk his life or liberty by raising such unpleasant issues.
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New York Times, on May 14, published an interesting story that explains with satellite images from Maxar Technologies and the Planet Lab that while both India and Pakistan talked big, but satellite imagery shows limited damage. Nevertheless images reveal that Indian missiles made precise hits on Pakistani bases, airstrips and hangars while Pakistani claims of damages could not be substantiated on images taken on 12th.
One can conclude that PAF was initially more successful with its J-10cs and PL-15s but Pakistani missiles were less accurate and ground defense systems almost a failure. Meaning thereby that if Americans had not forced a ceasefire, the next 48 hours could have been more difficult for the Pakistanis. This explains the frustration of Indian strategists who argue that the Washington has again fallen for Pakistan’s nuclear blackmail and stopped India from delivering a decisive blow which would have materialized within the next 72 hours.
Though Pakistani military may not have won the four day war – as it wants the public to believe, it has still emerged politically and psychologically strong. Its battered image inside Pakistan has been rejuvenated. It has managed Trump administration to talk of Kashmir with offers to mediate, and it has started thinking that it can hold India equal or defeat in case of a short war. Worst, it can continue to rule Pakistan with an iron hand denying people and media their democratic rights.
India has emerged telling its public that we have given Pakistan a good beating and established a new normal through Operation Sindoor but deep inside its strategic community feels that we have lost this war. As Brahma Chellaney, Professor at Center for Policy Research, has commented that PM Modi should not have gone for war and if he had chosen war then it should not have been aborted under the US pressure because it has left Pakistani military feeling more emboldened.
Four Days Indo-Pakistan War has thus left the weaker side feeling victorious and confident and the stronger side feeling humiliated and wounded – looking for a reset. Nothing could be more dangerous and potentially unstable. Since Pakistani military, for now at least, has achieved what it needed the most: political control inside Pakistan. And it has realized courtesy Operation Sindoor that India has lowered its threshold for anything that goes in Indian controlled Kashmir, it will in all likelihood not support anything big inside Kashmir for quiet sometime. But this does not end the story.
Much has been written, by the Indian and US academics, on how Pakistani military needs India as an enemy to maintain its control on country’s politics and economy. Events since Pehalgam terrorism are adding to this narrative. But much less has been understood that how Pakistan military and BJP have become opposite faces of the same coin. Both are feeding onto each other. Both need each other to justify their ever growing needs.
From the 1984 elections of Lok-Sabha when BJP won just two seats in a house of 543, till it won 303 seats in 2019, BJP has continuously relied upon creating upheavels and cataclysmic events on ground to push Indian society towards ever heightened religious identity, existential fears and insecurities. Demolition of Babri Mosque, Operation Parakaram, Surgical strikes, construction of Ram temple, abrogation of Art. 370 and promises of conquering POK are just few of the examples of BJP’s ideological agenda. BJP is RSS’s political offshoot and 2025 marks the 100th anniversary of RSS founding. Four Day War has left Pakistani military momentarily triumphant and BJP wounded with a sense of defeat; this will result in something. What? we don’t know as yet, but we need to stay vigilant.
Moeed Pirzada is the Editor of Global Village Space; he is also a prominent TV Anchor and a known columnist and Vlogger. He previously served with the Central Superior Services in Pakistan. Pirzada studied international relations at Columbia University, New York, and Law at the London School of Economics, UK, as a Britannia Chevening Scholar. He can be reached at: Editor@GlobalVillageSpace.com.