The ‘Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement’ between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, concluded on 17 September 2025 during Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s state visit to Riyadh, whereby aggression against one party is deemed aggression against both. When evaluated in the backdrop of Khawaja Asif’s statement as Minister of Defence, that our nuclear capabilities might be extended to the Saudis in extreme circumstances, is a significant development in great power politics, especially in the wake of a dying unipolar world order.
Not just allies, but guarantors 🇸🇦🇵🇰
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan sign a strategic mutual defence pact that could redraw the regional security map.
The agreement marks a shift from longstanding cooperation to a formalised structure of collective defence. pic.twitter.com/BxnUTjedDo
— Saud Salman AlDossary | سعود بن سلمان الدوسري (@999saudsalman) September 17, 2025
From Doha to Riyadh: An Agreement in Ambiguity
While this Pakistan-Saudi Defence Agreement has not undergone formal internal approvals from our Federal Cabinet or Parliament, rendering it legally questionable, such formalities may likely have been sacrificed in the interest of strategic ambiguity and secrecy.
Even a casual review of the Pak-Saudi relationship makes it obvious that this defence pact was not conceived overnight. It has been operative for years, just like Pakistan’s status as a nuclear power long before its formal declaration. The Israeli airstrike on Hamas officials in Doha on 9 September 2025, which resulted in the deaths of several operatives including the son of a prominent negotiator, provided the expedient rationale for a public announcement of this Agreement, much like India’s nuclear detonations on 11th & 13th May 1998 prompted Pakistan’s nuclear detonations fifteen days later, on 28th May, ending a long spell of strategic ambiguity.
The assault on Qatar profoundly unsettled the Gulf region, leading to an urgent Arab Islamic OIC summit in Doha, where leaders sought a cohesive response, though it largely dissolved into usual hollow declarations without substance.
Trump, Netanyahu, and Silent Approvals
Given the strong military presence of US forces in Qatar and his close relationship with the Emir, Donald Trump voiced public dissatisfaction, stating he was ‘not thrilled’ and that the United States had not been apprised until the operation was imminent, despite Netanyahu’s reported prior notification to him. In private, Trump expressed frustration to his associates regarding Netanyahu’s imprudence, but given his reluctance to confront him directly, whether because of Epstein files or heightened threat to his life, one is inclined to believe that the Pak-Saudi agreement bears his implicit approval, primarily as a subtle rebuke to Israel without overt conflict, particularly as Gulf leaders appealed to him post-summit to restrain Israeli actions. One should therefore not anticipate an adverse reaction from Trump on this Agreement. Israel is also least likely to issue a public reaction, for it may be construed as a sign of weakness or difference with the Trump Administration.
Accordingly, Saudi Arabia has decided to send a clear message to Israel that should Netanyahu attack the holy land, it has already made preparations to respond far stronger than the Iranians in their Twelve Day War (June 13 – 24, 2025) through this Pak-Saudi Defense Agreement, as a consequence of which, Pakistan is turning to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as a potential security provider against Israel in return for the Gulf states to serve as an alternative to the Bretton Woods institutions for financial support. While Pakistan secured a $7 billion IMF facility in late 2024, which was made possible only after securing Saudi financial guarantees, it now anticipates more direct inflows from the GCC, such as the $1.3 billion in climate funding received earlier this year, which serves as an indication of what may follow.
China’s Shadow in the Gulf
As the conduit for the Chinese military-industrial complex emboldened by Operation Sindoor, Pakistan is ideally positioned to enhance Chinese influence within the Gulf. Pakistan-Saudi Defence pact indirectly aligns Saudi Arabia with China’s sphere, strengthening deterrence vis-à-vis Iran and compensating for the unreliable assurances of the United States.
Read more: Islamic Bomb for Petrodollars: The Ummah’s Coalition, Barter, or Mirage?
Pakistan will endeavour to court both China and the USA concurrently, offering each what attracts them most.
In the immediate term, this Pakistan-Saudi Defence pact yields considerable advantages: the Indians are abandoning their longstanding de-hyphenation policy and acknowledging Pakistan as their primary adversary once more, bolstered by potential infusions of Gulf capital. The Indians are also acknowledging Pakistan’s foreign policy successes and viewing their own isolation as proof of rejection of their narrative on Pakistan as a failed state and a prime source of cross-border terrorism.
Cold War Echoes in Kabul
However, in the longer term, this agreement constitutes a dangerous repetition of Pakistan’s Cold War conduct, when it permitted great powers to contest on its soil. Trump’s candid admission in London that he is pursuing the reacquisition of Bagram Air Base from the Taliban because it is an hour away from where the Chinese manufacture their nuclear arsenal explains why Pakistani military leadership is out on a limb to impose a war on Kabul for exerting maximum pressure on the Taliban, who have rebuffed this demand outright, yet it is apparent that Pakistan is aiding American re-engagement, thereby transforming Afghanistan once again into a surrogate arena.
In conclusion, notwithstanding the initial triumphs, the prospects beyond are sombre; one cannot proffer one’s homeland as a theatre for contending titans and emerge unscathed. The Pakistan Army, encumbered by its colonial legacy, remains fundamentally incapable to learn from history and is thus condemned to repeat it, as is evident from the unprecedented spike in human losses in KPK. Keeping Imran Khan in jail at this crucial juncture is fuelling political discord and curbing national harmony, when it is needed the most. Ultimately, critics say that Pakistan is tragically realising its raison d’être: constraining the subcontinent’s potential to defy imperial forces, albeit at grave cost to itself.
Mr Zubair Gilani is a writer, a former banker, an entrepreneur, and a political activist, who has also served as Chairman Board of Investment in Pakistan. He can be reached at zubairhaidergilani@gmail.com