Ever since the signing of the defence pact between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, intense discourse has emerged in Pakistan over whether Islamabad will extend its nuclear umbrella to Riyadh.
The agreement, signed on Wednesday, September 17, 2025, in Riyadh between Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at Al-Yamamah Palace, raised questions in Pakistan and relevant quarters about the scope of military cooperation and the strategic implications of this pact for the wider Middle East as well as South Asia.
“This agreement … aims to develop aspects of defense cooperation between the two countries and strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression,” read the joint statement issued by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.
There had been alot of hype, fanfare on social media regarding the meeting between PM Sharif and KSA’s MBS. The pact potentially aims to bring the forces of two countries closer with a goal to develop joint deterrence.
The analysts and commentators are in unison when it comes to the effectiveness of this pact for both the countries especially Pakistan. Pak- Saudi ties are deeply rooted in faith as well as having close military and economic relations.
Pakistan has deployed its soldiers in Saudi Arabia which are estimated to be between 1500-2000 providing operational, technical and training help to Saudi military. Saudi Arabia has also provided billions of dollars to Pakistan’s struggling economy.
Former Pakistani ambassador Maleeha Lodhi hailing the pact called it the landmark development. She says the pact will fortify the multi-dimensional ties between both the countries.
Regional Backdrop: Why Now?
The signing of the pact by Saudi Arabia does signals towards the diminishing trust of the kingdom on the security arrangements and assurances offered by USA. The pact between Riyadh and Islamabad comes at a critical juncture, following Israel’s unprecedented and surprising airstrikes on Doha targeting Hamas leadership. Qatar, despite hosting the region’s largest U.S. military installation — the Al Udeid Air Base — failed to save itself from Israeli aggression.
The attack has not only shaken Qatar’s sense of security but has also incensed the wider Middle East, raising fears across Arab capitals of being vulnerable to similar strikes in the future, as well as reviewing the reliability of Washington’s security guarantees. It also considers broader tensions in the region in Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza and Iran.
The Arab world saw only the statements of concerns from US on the Doha attack.
So what does the pact between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan actually see? Does it mean that Pakistan is extending its nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia? Or it is just the formalization of the decades-old strategic, cultural, military, and political ties between the two Muslim countries.
Analysts are convinced that such pacts are not built overnight but takes months if not years before being finalised, and the work on the pact possibly started months before the Israel’s attack on Qatar. Some even noted that there had been a growing frustration in KSA regarding the reluctance of USA to offer them a security pact.
Pakistan, despite facing challenges at home, has been able to recalibrate itself as an important strategic partner after its recent skirmish with India in May 2025. At a time when KSA is skeptical of Washington’s security with a threat from Yemen’s Houthis rebels and Iran’s nuclear programme ambition, Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed Muslim state, becomes the natural choice for the defence pact for Saudi Arabia.
Scope of the Pact: Ambiguity and Speculation
According to the limited details released of the pact, the pact emphasizes joint deterrence and pledges that an attack on one will be treated as an attack on both — echoing NATO’s Article 5. When asked by Reuters if this obliges Pakistan to provide a nuclear umbrella, a Saudi official said it is a “comprehensive defensive agreement encompassing all military means” that potentially include all the convential and non-convential means of deterrence.
However, the vague wording has fuelled ambiguity and speculation about possible nuclear dimensions. While it gives an impression that Pakistan might extend its nuclear umbrella, several defence analysts in Pakistan believe that Pakistan’s nuclear arms are India-centric and for the deterrence of Pakistan only. Pakistan possess the largest military in the Islamic world apart from being the only nuclear-armed muslim country.
No Nuclear Umbrella
Rabia Akhtar, a prominent defence analyst in Pakistan, has in her article written for the Belfer Centre associated with the Kennedy Centre of Harvard University, that this statement by the Saudi official is a “deliberately broad statement that neither confirms nor denies any nuclear dimension.
It suggests the pact covers all forms of military cooperation in general terms, but it stops short of explicitly extending Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent to Saudi Arabia. Pakistan’s prior defense pact never involved nuclear guarantees, and this one is no different”. She further said, “That there is no evidence Islamabad has now retargeted its strategic forces to Iran or Israel. Hence, this doesn’t mean that India-Pakistan’s India-centric nuclear doctrine has turned into a Middle East umbrella.”
Not just allies, but guarantors 🇸🇦🇵🇰
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan sign a strategic mutual defence pact that could redraw the regional security map.
The agreement marks a shift from longstanding cooperation to a formalised structure of collective defence. pic.twitter.com/BxnUTjedDo
— Saud Salman AlDossary | سعود بن سلمان الدوسري (@999saudsalman) September 17, 2025
Pakistan and India both went nuclear in the 1990s, with Pakistan developing missiles that can hit deep into India, but if pointed in the other direction, Pakistan’s longest-range missiles could, in theory, even strike Israel as well, claims Reuters.
Historical Military Ties: Not a New Alliance
There have been rumors that KSA bankrolled Pakistan’s nuclear program in the 1980s. The two states have developed their close military ties since the 1960s, when Pakistani troops first deployed to protect Saudi frontiers during the regional conflict. Over the years, Pakistan has trained 8,000 to 10,000 Saudi military personnel.
Rabia Akhtar again says the new pact formalises a deep alliance that has historical roots rather than creating one out of thin air. She further argues that Pakistan has entered such formal defence pacts before and none led to automatic entanglement in wars or any nuclear umbrella guarantee.
She says that the new Saudi-Pakistan pact is primarily a political signal of solidarity and strategic cooperation rather than an unconditional war guarantee, and that Pakistan is unwilling to dilute control of its nuclear arsenal.
A senior Saudi official also stressed that this deal “was not” a response to specific countries or specific events, but it is the formalization of deep ties, recognition and formalization of deep ties.
Official Denials: Pakistan’s Position
Pakistani officials have consistently maintained that their nuclear arsenal is focused solely on deterring India. When Reuters asked Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif if Pakistan is going to extend its nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia under the new defence pact, he said that nuclear weapons were “not on the radar” of the pact. He said the agreement, however, the agreement could be extended to cover other Gulf nations.
Here, several analysts are of the view that other countries in the region including other GCC countries may sign such pacts with Pakistan in future as the recent conflict with India has given the opportunity to Pakistan to establish the effectiveness of its military.
Ever since the announcement of the pact, there has been a chatter around an excerpt from the journalist Bob Woodward’s book in which he recalled an alleged conversation where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman allegedly quipped to Senator Lindsay Graham that he doesn’t need uranium to make bombs, he can just buy one from Pakistan, which such statements gives an assumption that a de facto Saudi nuclear cover exists.
However, despite these speculations, Rabia Akhtar argues that there are no secret nuclear umbrellas in this pact. Meanwhile, in an as-yet-unpublished interview with editor GVS Dr. Moeed Pirzada, General Retired Tariq Khan, former head of Pakistan’s Central Command, maintained that Pakistan is under international protocols not to provide its nuclear umbrella to a third country, and anyone who makes such a claim has no understanding of how these things work.
Read more: US, Saudi Arabia Hold Largest-Ever Counter-Drone Exercise in the Middle East
What the Pact Really Means for KSA, Pakistan
The pact with Pakistan allows Saudi Arabia hedging and an attempt to diversify its security options and partnerships, provinding a conventional security guarantee, diversification of strategic partnerships, and access to Pakistani training and defense expertise — along with the symbolic value of having the Muslim world’s only nuclear power standing in solidarity with the Kingdom.
It is noteworthy to remember that Pakistan refused to join the Saudi war in Yemen (2015). Meanwhile, KSA would also be reluctant to go to war with India in case it attacks Pakistan, keeping in view its growing economic ties with it. The pact simply leaves room for political discretion in crises. With KSA’s point, it may push Washington to take Gulf security concerns more seriously. It also might challenge the influence of Israel as well in the region.
Pakistan is not obliged to prove its credibility to Washington or to calibrate its security doctrine to external commentary. Its nuclear posture is sovereign, India-centric, and anchored in well-established command-and-control practices. The Riyadh pact does not alter that… https://t.co/RCGHWDBvKu
— Rabia Akhtar (@Rabs_AA) September 18, 2025
For Pakistan, the pact offers strategic dividends beyond South Asia by positioning it as a Gulf security player, and urge other Middle Eastern states to align their security with Pakistan thus opening avenues for joint drills, weapons procurement, and potential inclusion in a broader Gulf security framework. It also deepens Pakistan’s reliance on Riyadh’s financial lifelines — loans, oil supplies, deferred payments, and investments — while converting that dependency into a more formal strategic bargain.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar has already floated with the idea of Arab Joint Security Force to protect the region from Israel’s attack on future.
Pakistan by binding its economic security to the security of KSA has saved itself from the sudden economic hiccups. Also by establishing itself as a capable strategic partners to Gulf and Middle East, Pakistan claims to have counter its arch-rival India diplomatically.
Politically, it signals brotherhood between the two states; however, it will be viewed with caution in New Delhi, Tel Aviv, Washington and Tehran. With so much yet to uncover and the pact in progress, only time will tell if this pact brings tangible results for both countries.