The Way Forward

‘When injustice becomes law, resistance becomes duty.’ Thomas Jefferson.

This paper is likely to be monitored and the small minds reading it would immediately see conspiracy in it, ignoring the concern that people such as us feel for the country – making such a sentiment exclusive and limited to their person alone. This paper will not be well received more for the truth it holds than the analysis it projects.

Nevertheless, what I am about to write is purely based on national interest, as I see in my own limited capacity; though it is often said that ‘Patriotism is the last refuge of a rascal’ and whatever steps we endeavour to undertake, we smugly attribute it towards our sense of patriotism, allowing us license to do our worst. On the other hand, this is not a good moment for retired generals to spew their wisdom – it will be least welcome by any measure in the State of Pakistan today – not for who we are but what we are perceived to represent!!!

A Foreign Policy in Disarray

Today the country is going through its worst moments. Our foreign Policy is in flux and one does not know where we stand – and at this juncture, where Pakistan actually has a opportunities and choices, we are confused and ambiguous in our standings and commitments. Is it China or the USA or even both? There are major accents in a geo-economic world of B3W (Build Back Better) and the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), which is the one that suits us? Yet it is not necessary to partner with only one at the exclusion of the other. Maybe a policy is in motion but we the people do not see it nor is it public which then makes it highly suspicious, secretive and open-ended. Our position viz. a viz. Afghanistan, Iran and India, specially IWT is not clear. National posture is stated by slogans that are contradicted by inaction or U-turns.

Our domestic policies are plagues by scandals, wheat, sugar, cooking oil, cotton, rice and energy. Corruption and malpractices are the order of the day exceeded only by the indifference shown in the face of this highway robbery. Businesses are fleeing, just as people are migrating and leaving the country. The economy is broken, inflation at an all-time high and rising, debt in an uncontrolled spiral as a government borrows to serve its own material interests alone. Provinces are up in arms as the Federal Government politicises events at the cost of Provincial Governments while Provincial Governments use the situation to bargain with the Federal Government for personal concessions and privileges. The justice system has already collapsed and the police totally a compromised force eager to do the government’s dirty work.

The Army’s Overreach and Denial

In this process the Army is considered to be the main mover and shaker, calling the shots, deciding the fate of the nation and establishing the direction the nation needs to take. With such unprecedented, unfettered absolute power, it is only natural, that the Army is squarely blamed for all that is going wrong. For the Army to deny its involvement in the affairs of the State and the wrong that is being perpetuated by its involvement and support to the most unpopular government of all times, is just like the ‘Lady, enjoying the attention, but who dost protests too much’.

It is natural for people such as I to feel pained with the stress and rigours that the Army is going through since I have been affiliated with the institution for so many years. I understand that those past associations no longer carry any weight, my experiences matter very little and my presence is now unwelcome. Yet the Army, leaving aside my own status – the rank and file, deserve better and that can easily be arrived at if one were to only listen to common sense but that in itself is a separate subject. However, the hurt and grievance that this country is suffering from on a daily basis is a wider and much more complex issue.

It is usually argued that is how it has always been but I cannot agree with it and will not draw inferences from Gen Ayub’s, Zia’s, Yahya’s or Musharaf’s times since each had an obtaining environment which in a way explains the situation then and partially justifies the actions they took, which is not the case now. Nevertheless, whatever they did, it was never as devoid of national interests as it is now, nor as focused, on personal interest as much as it is today – making the nation a hostage to the whims of a few and individual preferences of some, at the cost of the country.

A Nation at the Crossroads

We have now arrived at a point in this nation’s history which has had no parallel. I feel that the movers and shakers, the decision makers and the powers-that-be, are either not aware of the situation as it stands in the country and are living in a fool’s paradise based on motivated briefings, manipulated accounts and created perceptions; or then if not this, they are deliberately taking the country down the garden path on account of self-preservation and individual personal interests, as opposed to, national interests – the nation can go to hell.

False accounts or deliberate indifference, whatever may be the case, the fact of the matter is, that none of these office-holders are in a position to redirect or correct the course we are travelling along, through any conventional or democratic means and thus appealing to them would be like pleas falling upon deaf ears; they are likely to be more offended by criticism than moved to a sense of urgency, by any sincere and genuine petition. Any corrective measures, leading to a change in the current system or status in the balance of power would go directly against the self-preservation of the sitting government in power, and their aiders and abettors, and as such would be contested and aggressively resisted to, tooth and nail.

In fear of such a change and the obvious punitive actions that would follow it, the government, in order to perpetuate this rule/reign indefinitely, has managed to manipulate the bureaucracy into becoming an accessory, the police into an armed gang enforcing the will of an illegal government, the judiciary a willing accomplice, the election commissioner an ardent co-conspirator, the FIA, NAB and other intelligence agencies all deeply committed to aiding and abetting the wrongs being done to this nation by a government gone insane. Thus any recourse through rule of law, the constitution or moral appeal has no chance of being heard, let alone being addressed.

The Absence of a People’s Movement

Nations around us and even before us have seen the trials and tribulations of such mal-administration and poor governance, in the past and the present, as well. They suffered the consequences and survived. Their moment eventually arrived and it was the public that had, had enough and come to a point of ‘no-more’. The people reached out and took charge of their destiny through street-power of the masses.

Has our moment too arrived? I do not think so and it is because in our small world we have divided the nation into the government versus PTI and we see no other equation in this tussle – if you are not with the government, then you are with PTI. It is beyond the imagination of the people that matter, that bringing in suggestions, complaints and recommendations to the government, in no way indicates lack of loyalty, sincerity or an anti-state position. People in office feel that theirs alone, and only their people have a sense or a need to do good. Thus to make any intellectual, moral or sensible recommendation one must qualify by being in the right camp and if one is not in the right camp, one is unsuitable to contribute in any way towards a better government.

Thousands of ideas and opinions thus get buried by a government that has been reduced to embracing nepotism and parochialism in a false sense of security. Matters related to the security, economy, political stability, agriculture, policies other than these etc. are all limited to a close band of clueless people who have more faith in each other than in the truth, honesty and reality. They continue to reinforce failure in every policy by an obstinate determination to continue doing whatever they already were doing. Hey are not willing to desist from their ridiculous initiatives nor allow anyone else to do anything better.

The Limitations of PTI and the Need for Broader Action

Reasonable opposition always works in the interest of the government and not against it, highlighting the spaces that the government needs to fill. However, any serious agitation today, against the government is only fielded by PTI, whereas, there is a need for the people themselves to rise and address the government; the issues in question go far above and beyond the PTI. Besides the PTI has lost its cohesion and has suffered a serious loss in momentum and tempo. They are no longer in a position to lead a ‘people’s’ movement and have now become more concerned with the release of their political prisoners.

In the case of a people’s movement, leadership must always be horizontal and never vertical. When people are in search of directives, orders and instructions from a higher order, it makes it a political party oriented agitation. A people’s movement does not have a recognised leadership before it – the orientation is national and the agenda that affects the people – prices, taxes, law and order, employment, hunger etc. Leadership, under such circumstances, is always a product of small tier people and the execution is invariably decentralised.

These movements are usually a product of some spontaneous event (accidental or deliberate) that usually triggers suppressed emotions into uncontrolled expression of rage, vindication and a universal quest to be recognised as a people of that State. If PTI cannot merge into a people’s movement, they do not have a chance. Thus as I see it, our moment, has still not arrived. With PTI the only opposition and that too represented by a divided leadership, some compromised, other cultivated and the rest lacking in sincerity, the time has arrived for the people to take matters into their own hands – the people do not deserve this kind of leadership and they, the people, do not represent the PTI but the nation as a whole.

Deceptive Negotiations and the Failure of Constitutional Remedies

If in the unlikely event, pressure is ever mounted and becomes plainly visible and when change is in the offing, the government will offer the allure of negotiations only to buy time and survive a little longer. However, it must be understood that there are only two ways to handle such a conflict: The first and foremost is through constitutional means where it has become near impossible because all instruments of state or apparatus of governance has been effectively usurped and are now totally captured; no independent body exists.

The only way forward could be to set up a mutually acceptable commission to look into the cipher issue, regime change, constitutional amendments, the manipulation of the election commission, distortion to the constitution, missing people and political arrests, the rigging of the elections etc. This is not likely to happen for the obvious conclusions it would lead to – violations of Article 6 of the Constitution. However, an alternative to this, though far-fetched but possible, nevertheless, could be to ask for assistance from the United Nations to establish an impartial body to do the needful – establish a Truth and Reconciliation Commission under its auspices. Since the government, by its conduct, its position and its attitude is probably guilty of most of the complaints, they would never agree to either of these constitutional methods proposed for a resolution.

A Dangerous Turn: The Unconstitutional Route

This brings us to the other method, which would be to go down the unconstitutional route – force, violence, mass protests – revolution; and maybe, God-forbid, even civil-war. This is a phenomenon that would be aggressively supported by India, Afghanistan, Iran and even the USA for each of their own very obvious national interests, and such a possibility is only a matter of time on account of a conducive environment being created that allows for intrusive interference. The principle player in creating that environment would be the government itself by it maladministration causing polarisation in society, division amongst people, provincial animosities and ideological divides. The throes of separatist movements are already existent in Baluchistan and the KP Province has started an insurrection even as we these lines are being penned down. The situation is gradually getting out of control.

There is no middle road anymore and the peaceful protests as being recommended and we are seeing, are not only inconsequential but meaningless, under the circumstances. Secondly, protesting in every corner of the country, as being proposed, will only dilute the effort into insignificant noise that can be easily ignored for the what they represent. I do not see such a movement or such an agitation carried out on the streets by the PTI. Looking at the people in general and the PTI in particular today, they, either have a depth of tolerance that is unparalleled or then lack the moral capacity to weather confronting the apparatus of the state and may remain subdued for some time to come. Nevertheless, the individual economic and administrative situation may force a reaction from a people who have no other recourse but to agitate.

Impending Collapse

Seeing that the current situation cannot be corrected without mass protests at the centre of power in Islamabad by a people’s movement, the people may respond spontaneously. Such a movement, if undertaken, under the prevailing circumstances, with the armed uprising in Baluchistan and the KP, can take a very dangerous note and be an uncontrolled event with highly unintended consequences. Such a movement would be a product of anarchy and not something leading to anarchy – anarchy being an event sparked and ignited by a frustrated people. Such a movement is where every minister, all office holders, every institution will be confronted.

Offices usurped illegally, where authority has been misused and jurisdiction violated, would be vacated forcibly. The law cannot be processed in one way alone and all must be equal before it or it will not exist for anyone – it cannot protect the chosen few alone selectively!! Thus order would collapse and law would become irrelevant. Moral appeal would not work against those who lack in every measure of moral values; ideological demand would fall on deaf ears in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan where Muslims abide but Islam does not, and where we have reduced our belief to slogans rather than substance. The only solution to the people rebelling, would lie in overwhelming the government by the power of a people’s protest in Islamabad – anything else, in the face of such a rebellion, is like whistling in the wind hoping wishful thoughts alone would be enough!!

The Three Options for Pakistan

So at my age and where I am at, my hope lies in the limited corrections of the continuation of statecraft by other means and not some large scale revolution or civil war. The situation must be arrested now and the country saved from an unpredictable violent turn of events that are ominously on the horizon.

Read More: DON’T CRY FOR ME – PAKISTAN

Pakistan is now faced with three options for better governance and survival. The first is to continue doing what one is doing and pray divinity comes to our assistance and that the country prospers due to some intangible event, asset or process that people such as I do not see on the horizon. The second option is to undergo a rebellion by the people against what they see as tyranny and a usurpation of their rights. In this case the end state is uncertain and one does not know where we would end up as viz. a viz. a state or the kind of leadership or governance that we may be saddled with – the results would be purely an outcome of an uncontrolled implosion, that no one is in a position to predict with any certainty as to what its final conclusion would look like.

The third option is to put in place a technocrat government at the behest of military leadership. It appears to be the least painful method and the most realistic, leading to the stabilising the affairs of the State by reforms and restructuring almost every department; establishing a new contract between the people and the government. When things have improved and are more stable, to gradually return to a controlled democracy in good time, opening up the country to more and more liberty and freedoms for individual and collective participation in State affairs. This, for now, would be my leading recommendation.

Path to Redemption

I feel it’s time for Pakistan to take serious corrective measures. The military can and is in a position to remove this incompetent and corrupt government. The Army must distance itself from this highly unpopular coterie of misguided fools. However, if and when the military decides to take matters fully into their own hands, they must be honest enough to express the premise to what they are about to do.

The premise would be that it is the military itself which is responsible for the state of institutional break-down in conventional governance because of its continued interference. Having recognised the wrong, it has perpetuated against the people and having taken responsibility for it, it must now take measures to right the wrong, by empowering the right people, independent and totally autonomous to reform the State. To support such reforms in the interest of the country and the people. In the meantime, the military can reach out to the people and set up local body governance making the people relevant again.

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The Way Forward

Lt Gen (retd) Tariq Khan’s calls for the establishment of a military-backed technocratic government as a necessary intervention to address Pakistan’s deepening political paralysis, economic decline, and the risk of nationwide unrest.