The world is dangerously close to breaching the critical 1.5°C global warming threshold, the United Nations warned on Wednesday in a stark new report. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN’s climate agency, now estimates a 70% chance that the average global temperature between 2025 and 2029 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
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This threshold is a central target of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, where governments pledged to limit global warming to “well below” 2°C and ideally to 1.5°C to minimize climate-related risks. However, CO₂ emissions continue to rise, making the more ambitious goal increasingly out of reach.
Hottest Years on Record
The WMO report highlights the alarming trajectory of global temperatures. The past 10 years have been the hottest ever recorded, with 2023 and 2024 topping the list. The agency now projects an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, and an 86% chance that one year will exceed 1.5°C of warming on its own.
Importantly, passing 1.5°C in a single year does not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement, which is based on 20-year average warming. Using combined past observations and future projections, the WMO estimates that the average temperature for 2015–2034 will be 1.44°C above pre-industrial levels. The EU’s Copernicus Climate Service currently places the figure at 1.39°C, suggesting 1.5°C could be reached by mid-2029 or sooner.
Possibility of 2°C Now on the Horizon
For the first time, WMO forecasts show a 1% chance that a single year between 2025 and 2029 could be more than 2°C warmer than pre-industrial times. While still “exceptionally unlikely,” scientists say the fact that such a scenario has entered the realm of possibility is “shocking.” “We have never seen this in our forecasts before,” said Adam Scaife from the UK’s Met Office. “It has gone from being impossible to merely improbable—an alarming shift.”
Global Impacts Already Unfolding
The consequences of even incremental warming are profound. The WMO warns that each fraction of a degree intensifies heatwaves, extreme rainfall, droughts, wildfires, and ice melt. Recent examples include record-breaking temperatures over 50°C in the UAE and Pakistan, and deadly weather events in Australia, France, India, Ghana, and Canada.
Regions will be affected unevenly. Arctic winters are expected to warm 3.5 times faster than the global average. Sea ice loss in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk seas is expected to continue. Meanwhile, the Amazon rainforest may face increasing drought, while South Asia, the Sahel, and northern Europe could see wetter-than-normal conditions.
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Despite these grim projections, experts stress it is not too late. “Every fraction of a degree matters,” said WMO climate services director Chris Hewitt. “It’s really important to keep the warming as low as possible.” The WMO notes that the Paris Agreement has already reduced projected warming compared to pre-agreement forecasts. With the COP30 climate summit set for Brazil in November, the report serves as a critical call to action. “Relying on oil, gas, and coal in 2025 is total lunacy,” said climatologist Friederike Otto. “We must take climate action—1.5°C is not inevitable.”