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Friday, January 27, 2023
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Projections for US elections 2020: Who is in the lead?

In short, this election day consists of contrasting images of America and is painting major changes in the country. Now, only the next 24 hours could determine America's political future and a nervous global friendship in the path of an election, writes Juan Abbas.

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With one day left until US election day, polls are taking their own turns and I’ve analyzed a bunch of them to present a projection analysis of the preview of the first Tuesday of November and to determine who is in the lead.

Maine

With Sarah Gideon’s fight for the Senate, she is clearly ahead in the polls in Maine. I’ve rated the state of Maine at solid democrat with the exception of the second congressional district only leaning democrat. This includes people in the solid support for Sen. Susan Collins but mostly for the GOP agenda.

New Hampshire

While most polls base the state light blue, I see it going towards Biden, especially with the overwhelming support among the people for their Senators Shaheen and Hassan. This state is the edge of the rust belt but not a large fraction of swing voters preside there.

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Vermont

Vermont is a state very similar to Maine. It has many Democrats mixing with independents and very few Republicans in comparison to a viable amount. This viable amount is also one supporting the original Republican Party and Republicans against Trump have a significant presence there.

Massachusetts

Massachusetts’ moderate Republican Governor is a fierce critic of the president and has made clear he does not support his reflection. Massachusetts has a heavy democratic voter presence. It also tends to have a high turnout. I see Joe Biden easily winning those non-voting democrats of 2016 and also those conservatively liberal middle class which can’t afford four more years of devastation.

Connecticut

The state has 7 Electoral College votes. Similar to its opposite coastal state of California, it has been a reliable grab for Democrats and independents. In 2016, Clinton won the state with 51% of the vote.

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New York

With a majority of democratic members from New York, both in the United States Senate and in the House of Representatives, Democrats can look at the state as a deep blue state, shifting itself towards unorthodox and anti-establishment politics, but not towards establishing a different base of ideologies, and therefore avoiding division.

Pennsylvania

In 2020, Pennsylvania is seen as the most important battleground state of the cycle. This time, the Trump campaign has not heavily focused on the state and is trying to win from its basic states, not realizing a narrow lead will be the effect of such policies.

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I have rated it as a solid democratic state. The State has many women, especially those without a college degree, which are critical of Trump`s scathing principles and are also critical in the voter turnout. A poll by Washington Post/ABC News polling showed the President trailing Joe Biden by 7 points. Significantly, this would show those who did not vote for Clinton in 2016 but see Biden as a uniting force and a well-thought moderate.

Michigan

The State shows major pickups for both parties. Although, following the plot to kidnap the Michigan Governor and the President’s reactions to many such events, polling shows certain republicans turning away from him but still supporting their distanced republican officials on key House and Senate tickets.

Florida is the most divided state and its dynamic political divide is so important in the narrow path to 270

I have rated the 16 electoral vote state with a lean democrat to solid democrat state. Democrats will most likely keep the Senate portion of the vote. They can pick up two-thirds of the Electoral College votes. They are also assured that their concerns will be taken care of as Biden has promised that he will be, if elected an American President, not just those supporting and overseeing the needs of red states.

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Wisconsin

With civil unrest in the state, it is easily inferable that Trump’s absence will fuel an anti-Trump vote and despite ANTIFA being classified as a domestic threat by some, they will be voting for Biden in the election, even if he does not support them back.

I do see Biden winning by a wide margin if you look state-by-state and Trump eventually challenging the election

I view this state as a solid democrat state as overwhelming support for Democrats is present in heavily-populated districts and cities, such as Madison and Milwaukee.

Ohio

In Ohio, Republicans have a saying of “Trump Country”. A place where mostly Trump voters reside. However, the Republican Governor, Mark DeWine, has in ways, criticized the White House and put in place their own protections against the virus.

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Now, Ohio`s Republicans are shifting their views away from Trump but not necessarily towards Biden. Yet, this could help democrats who could have a higher proportion on Election Day and this eventually could help a potential contest in Congress.

Florida

Florida is the most divided state and its dynamic political divide is so important in the narrow path to 270. In Miami-Dade county, voters are lining up where Democratic incumbent Congresswomen Donna Shalala is, according to the latest poll by Bendixen & Amandi International , is seven points ahead but again many democrats are relying on the campaign rather than the polls, to avoid a repeat of 2016`s chaos amongst the blue votes.

North Carolina

The Bible belt and Sun Belt state is a very diverse state full of college towns such as Raleigh where there are many women with college degrees and international students, as well as the rest of the research triangle.

Out east, Democrats have the advantage with Charlotte and towards north Durham. Whereas, out west towards the coastal parts, Republicans have a higher voter turnout, especially merging into North-eastern South Carolina.

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I would rate the state as a lean Democrat state, especially with the likability factor among many by dodging incumbent Senator Tillis and a promotion of the Black Lives Matter Movement.

Montana

Montana is in a tricky situation. Montana`s Democratic governor Steve Bullock is running for Senate and could win the leaning red state by a wide margin. Donald Trump is seen paying less attention to Montana, he is over-looking a key senate race which could lead to a major flip in the United States Senate.

In short, this election day consists of contrasting images of America and is painting major changes in the country. I do see Biden winning by a wide margin if you look state-by-state and Trump eventually challenging the election. However, nationally, I see a narrow lead of Joe Biden, but despite that, making his way through the electoral college and into the White House. Senate candidates also see their future in the balance as the coronavirus is surrounding these races. Now, only the next 24 hours could determine America’s political future and a nervous global friendship in the path of an election.

Juan Abbas is a freelance writer for the Daily Times. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Global Village Space.