Co-authored by Omar Samad (Amb.), Dr. Ahmad Wais WARDAK, and Dr. Mujib Abid
The United Nations Security Council convened last week to assess the quarterly Afghanistan report presented by the out-going Special Representative of the Secretary General, Rosa Otunbayeva, and other Council members. They did not, however, expect to hear that Afghanistan’s precarious trajectory faces a “perfect storm” of crises—humanitarian shortages, entrenched human rights violations, and regional tension, among other challenges. While the wars in Gaza and Ukraine loom large over global discussions, Afghanistan, increasingly, feels out of sight. Nonetheless, four years after the Taliban’s return to power, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) remains a vital, yet stressed out lifeline for a country grappling with internal challenges, isolation and sanctions.
UNAMA’s overall mandate is about overseeing the humanitarian effort, the promotion of human rights, peace and inclusive governance in the country. Through its integrated model, the mission coordinates humanitarian and development aid with a host of agencies while aiming to foster political inclusion in an environment where the regime is lacking resolve. The mission has to navigate treacherous waters to work with the ever-suspicious de facto Emirate authorities in Kabul.
The mission has operated in the crossfire of great power politics and complex regional agendas. And yet, its raison d’être remains critical. Restrictions on basic human and women’s rights, including access to education and work, dwindling donor confidence amid economic sanctions, and – despite claims to the contrary by the authorities – the persistent threat of terrorist and criminal groups seeking space and narco revenues, are some of the issues UNAMA must address. In this analysis, we draw from the mission’s recent experiences to dissect these challenges and look at the path ahead. We do caution though that expecting any one entity, including the UN, to be the ultimate fixer or problem-solver is unrealistic, unless it can use a collaborative approach based on consultations and consensus.
The Roller Coaster Mission
For the past three years, since Otunbayeva (known to Afghans as Rosa) assumed her role as Special Representative (ending this month), UNAMA has navigated a landscape where humanitarian and other mandate imperatives clash with the de facto government’s unyielding edicts. This, combined with international isolation, exacerbated by cycles of poverty, displacement and natural disasters, add further layers of complexity to the overarching goals of the mission.
Otunbayeva’s tenure reflected both resilient adaptation and systemic limitations, as UNAMA strives to maintain relevance within a governing structure that views multilateralism with suspicion. Her mission has yielded select accomplishments. Yet, most of the roadblocks were caused by a mix of rigid edicts at home and inconsistent posturing outside Afghanistan. Recalibration will necessitate more pragmatism within the current ruling circles in Kabul and Kandahar, and a stronger consensus, both within the competitive UN system, as well as with interest-driven regional actors.
UNAMA’s key accomplishments include coordination of humanitarian aid with specialized UN agencies and nongovernmental organizations, and support for vulnerable populations, at a time when crises like droughts, earthquakes, and the unbearable influx of more than three million forced returnees from neighboring countries since 2023, have taken a toll.
Through initiatives such as the Strategic Framework for Afghanistan, UNAMA has prioritized aid delivery, while facilitating over 93 outreach meetings across 34 provinces on governance and rights issues. Otunbayeva’s direct engagements with Afghanistan’s de facto authorities on returnee integration and climate-affected regions have secured commitments for continued UN assistance, including $10 million in UNHCR cash aid for refugees (on hold for the moment).
Furthermore, as part of a new Doha process, the UN has convened at least two working groups on counter-narcotics and private sector development, fostering off-site dialogues that address livelihoods, and attract funding and investment to mitigate new and future crises.
Otunbayeva’s briefings to the Security Council also stress on gender-based restrictions and on access to education and work. They have amplified Afghanistan’s realities by advocating for an independent assessment of international efforts, underscoring progress in areas like private sector expansion and counter narcotics. These efforts, rooted in quiet diplomacy, echo historical UN roles in fragile states, where incremental gains in humanitarian aid and monitoring sustain lifelines to people who face acute shortages and loss of livelihoods.
Yet, some achievements are overshadowed by environmental shortcomings, at times stemming from UNAMA’s own constrained mandate and, at times, the host government’s obstructive policies. Despite the mission’s emphasis on human rights monitoring, progress on women’s and girls’ education and work rights remains elusive. With the supreme leader’s decrees enforced in these sectors, the international community’s humanitarian aid has been unable to do much to bridge the gap.
For their part, Taliban officials have repeatedly urged Otunbayeva to “reflect realities” in UN reports, implying bias by certain member states. They point to their fight against poppy cultivation and drug production, as well as their security measures against Islamic State Khurassan (ISKP), as accomplishments worthy of appreciation. However, others point to the continued presence of select terror outfits inside Afghan territory. Contrary to the multi-state UNSC Sanctions Committee Monitoring Team’s (which has not visited Afghanistan in the past five years) controversial reports, Intel agencies offer a different perspective on CT, not always aligned with nor in agreement on the net outcome. Such discrepancies put UNAMA in a difficult position as its mandate does not cover such sensitive matters.
Read More: A MOSAIC Approach to Afghanistan: Controversy and Opportunity
Pertaining to counterterrorism, the recent remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, wanting access to Bagram air base, are not only part of old discussion being rehashed six years later, but could also compel international stakeholders, especially the UNSC permanent members and key regional countries, to re-assess the probabilities, ramifications and their respective position vis-avis a potential U.S. move. Reminiscent of twenty years of asymmetric power dynamics between Kabul and Washington, such a turn of events would reflect the changing dynamics in the global landscape. Irrespective of how it plays out, the UN (and UNAMA as an extension) is not equipped to deal with such developing scenarios.
The Way Forward
As discussed, UNAMA operates with prospective challenges that are unique to the country and the region. Considering the evolving geopolitical and power competition circumstances, the following issues need to be addressed as part of an overarching strategy, as has been proposed in the recent UN draft titled the MOSAIC plan:
- Although the authorities in Kabul/Kandahar have nixed the idea (also partially endorsed by China and Russia) of appointing a Special Envoy, the UN has yet to reach a final agreement on how to deal with a proposal that emanated from the independent assessment and reflected in Res/2721 in December 2023.
- The fate of the proposed UN MOSAIC plan, which is on hold, would need to be determined as part of a more comprehensive approach to address outstanding issues from all sides, with the intent to gradually resolve each of its six planks, and move toward reintegration in the international community.
- Similarly, the fate of the Doha process, under UN aegis, that has played a role in bringing stakeholders and civil society actors around two separate tables, would also need to be reviewed and revised to be more inclusive.
- The current priority is the deepening humanitarian emergency, with over 23 million Afghans—more than half the population—requiring assistance amid climate-induced droughts, earthquakes, and the mass return of more than one million Afghans from neighboring countries in 2025 alone.
- Compounding this, is a drastic 50 percent cut in humanitarian aid for 2025, with projections of further reductions in 2026, as donor fatigue and competing global crises erode aid delivery, leaving UNAMA, NGOs and aid groups to manage diminished resources while navigating Taliban-imposed barriers on aid distribution, particularly to women-led and women-centric NGOs.
- On the security front, despite efforts, the persistent threat of groups like ISKP that have found sanctuaries in the neighborhood, and continue to exploit governance vacuums, necessitates enhanced regional diplomacy through forums like the Doha process and others to integrate security concerns.
- Women’s exclusion remains a flashpoint, with Otunbayeva’s warnings on the term “gender apartheid” underscoring the need for conditional engagement—tying aid to verifiable rights benchmarks as an option to consider.
- While economic sanctions continue to erode donor confidence, political dialogue stalls without broader inclusion of Afghan voices, including a more representative civil society and non-Taliban exiles (some structured as anti-regime armed cells), who fall into fragmented groupings.
- Who will lead UNAMA hereon is going to be a crucial question that will need UNSC consensus and regional buy-in. Failure to do so will further distance Afghanistan from the international community. It will also encourage more off-grid deal-making via bilateral and multilateral channels, a prospect that some countries do not mind (as recently seen with Mr. Trump’s Bagram remarks).
Recalibration and Revitalization
Current and future challenges at the UN headquarters and for UNAMA in Kabul are multifaceted. First, keeping Afghanistan relevant and on the radar screen is becoming more of a struggle as world attention is distracted by other priorities. Second, realizing that outstanding challenges are rooted in a toxic interplay of humanitarian distress, political intransigence, and operational constraints.
This will require careful and measured management; Third, agreeing that engagement is a communication tool, not a legitimacy prize. Using targeted engagement, regional diplomacy needs to be bolstered by a seasoned diplomat through platforms like the Doha process, understanding that the country and its communities (internal and in diaspora) also need engagement and dialogue at all levels.
As one international observer put it: “Otunbayeva’s successor must build on her diplomatic groundwork by advocating for a hybrid approach: bolstering UNAMA’s monitoring role with tech-enabled rights tracking, enhancing subnational initiatives for grassroots resilience, creatively opening new spaces for internal dialogue and external engagement, and leveraging to enforce accountability.” Only through such practical recalibrations can UNAMA deliver on key fronts, honoring Afghanistan’s resilient spirit in the midst of enduring storms.
And finally, for the de facto authorities in charge, mindful of the important nuances that exist within the system, it is yet another opportunity to bring about much anticipated reforms, lift unjustified and unpopular restrictions on education and work, open space for other Afghans from all communities and professional backgrounds to acquire more ownership through inclusion and participation in the rebuilding effort. Failure to do so will, undoubtedly, keep Afghanistan underdeveloped and ostracized, resulting in increasing population alienation.
Omar SAMAD is a dialogue facilitator and CEO of Silkroad Consulting, a former Ambassador to Canada and France, and Government Spokesperson and Advisor.
Dr. Ahmad Wais WARDAK is a Washington DC-based Security Cooperation expert and an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at George Mason University, Virginia.
Dr. Mujib ABID is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the University of Melbourne, Australia. His research interests include modern Afghan history, peace research and political theory.