News Analysis |
North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un’s announcement to test ICBM, on January 2 2017, took US by surprise. North Korea has demonstrated its ability to launch ballistic missiles beyond its immediate region through a series of missile and nuclear tests in this year. It has raised many security concerns in US and China. It is quite interesting that China and North Korea were key allies and fought against the US in Korean War (1950-53).
Despite China-North Korea strong bilateral trade relations, North Korea had issued a criticism against China that, “One must clearly understand that the D.P.R.K.’s line of access to nukes for the existence and development of the country can neither be changed nor shaken […] And that the D.P.R.K. will never beg for the maintenance of friendship with China, risking its nuclear program which is as precious as its own life, no matter how valuable the friendship is…
The chances of North Korea’s desire to give up its nuclear capability seem less. It is pursuing its politico-military strategy in the upcoming talks. Moreover, the recent $60 billion US trade sanctions on China may become a hurdle in the success of Trump-Kim summit.
China should no longer try to test the limits of the D.P.R.K.’s patience[…] China had better ponder over the grave consequences to be entailed by its reckless act of chopping down the pillar of the D.P.R.K.-China relations”, on May 3, 2017. UN Security Council has imposed several sanctions on N. Korea since its first nuclear test in 2006. Afterwards, North Korea has conducted 12 tests in February, 2017 of the Pukkuksong-2 medium-range ballistic missile. China also complied with the UN Resolution 2321 and stopped all coal imports (North Korea’s main export) from North Korea.
The latest sanctions on N. Korea were sanctioned by UNSC: oil supplies to the DPRK are prohibited and all countries have decided to expel North Korean labor migrants from the territories of the countries where they work within 24 months. These sanctions may be pushing Kim to hold talks with Trump. Officials from South Korea and North Korea met in the first week of March, 2018, during which Kim expressed his desire to meet with Trump.
The third meeting between North Korea and South Korea’s leaders in history – is scheduled to take place in late April, 2018 at the Peace House on the southern part of Panmunjom. This summit will be followed by a meeting between Kim Jong-Un and U.S. President Donald Trump, by May, 2018. Prior to Trump-Kim upcoming meeting, Kim’s surprise visit to Beijing on March 27, 2018 has generated a debate about what might happen in the future. The timing of his visit is crucial. China may want to seek what North Korea is going to discuss with Trump.
North Korea has demonstrated its ability to launch ballistic missiles beyond its immediate region through a series of missile and nuclear tests in this year. It has raised many security concerns in US and China.
As China is the biggest trade partner of North Korea, it is one of possibilities that China may take an advantage of their bilateral relations to offer something in order to lessen the volatility of trade war between US and China. There are fewer prospects of unanimity in what US expects from North Korea and what North Korea expects from the US. Trump seems very optimistic and tweeted about trilateral meeting, “For years and through many administrations, everyone said that peace and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula was not even a small possibility.
Read more: North Korea set to launch satellite: report
Now there is a good chance that Kim Jong Un will do what is right for his people and for humanity. Look forward to our meeting!” on March 28, 2018. However, North Korea might not certain about the issues going to be discussed with Trump. North Korea kept firm its nuclear stance claimed it is the matter of their survival. It is quite possible that sanctions on North Korea may be tightened more in case North Korea do not support the denuclearization of Korean Peninsula what Trump is expecting.
Simultaneously, it is also one of the possibilities that the Trump’s desire to pull out itself from a remarkable nuclear deal with Iran on May 12, 2018, may lessen the chances of reaching a significant weapons agreement with Pyongyang. Or if Trump offers such deal to North Korea to freeze its nuclear program, North Korea might not trust Trump in this regard. The chances of North Korea’s desire to give up its nuclear capability seem less. It is pursuing its politico-military strategy in the upcoming talks. Moreover, the recent $60 billion US trade sanctions on China may become a hurdle in the success of Trump-Kim summit.