Home Global Village The “South Yemenis” are trying to repeat the Kurdish scenario

The “South Yemenis” are trying to repeat the Kurdish scenario

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Andrew Korybko |

A South Yemeni separatist leader vowed to hold an independence referendum in the near future. The former governor of Aden Aidaroos al-Zubaidi declared his region’s forthcoming plans on a symbolic day marking the 54th anniversary of the city’s uprising against the British.

Obviously trying to capitalize on nationalist sentiment and nostalgia for what was for several decades the independent country of the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen, commonly referred to as “South Yemen”. This state merged with the Yemen Arab Republic, known as “North Yemen”, in 1990, but the south soon thereafter had some misgivings about the new power arrangement and a brief civil war erupted in 1994 when it tried to unsuccessfully secede.

Just like the War on Syria might end with a de-facto internal partition through “federalization”, so too might the War on Yemen ultimately conclude in the same way, with the Syrian Kurds

The post-war period saw the progressive centralization of the northern powerbrokers’ influence over the south, something that may have been resented by some individuals but which eventually became the political norm in the reunified country with time.

Read more: The Kurds Are Ethnically Cleansing Arabs From Raqqa, And The World…

It wasn’t until the commencement of the Saudis’ disastrous War on Yemen in 2015 that the topic of secession seriously came up again, since instead of remaining relegated to the political fringes, this movement acquired a degree of international “legitimacy” because of the coalition’s occupation of most of the former country’s territory. What was at one time “North Yemen” is almost completely liberated by the Houthi rebels.

While “South Yemen” is under the control of international forces, and the dividing line between the two is eerily reminiscent of the historic boundaries between these Cold War-era states. Given the stalemate between both sides, it’s unlikely that one will end up expanding their gains at the others’ expense, and it’s quite possible that Yemen will institutionalize this de-facto “internal partition” as part of any future peace process to end the war.

It deserves to function as its own post-war “federalized” entity, hence the unconstitutional referendum that it plans to hold and the illegal parliamentary-like body that it wants to govern this part of the country.

For that to happen, however, then “South Yemen” needs to make the case that it deserves to function as its own post-war “federalized” entity, hence the unconstitutional referendum that it plans to hold and the illegal parliamentary-like body that it wants to govern this part of the country. In many ways, strong parallels can be drawn between the Syrian Kurds and the “South Yemenis”, in that each is backed by the US and is engaging in demagogic displays of so-called “democracy” in order to “legitimize” their patron’s political projects.

Read more: The Kurdish Kaleidoscope

Accordingly, it’s also possible for Yemen to repeat the Syrian peacemaking scenario in that Saudi Arabia could follow Russia’s lead by pioneering its own form of the Astana Peace Process for bringing all relevant stakeholders to the table in hashing out a “face-saving” “compromise solution” that could give Riyadh a “respectable excuse” to retreat.

This state merged with the Yemen Arab Republic, known as “North Yemen”, in 1990, but the south soon thereafter had some misgivings about the new power arrangement and a brief civil war erupted in 1994 when it tried to unsuccessfully secede.

Just like the War on Syria might end with a de-facto internal partition through “federalization”, so too might the War on Yemen ultimately conclude in the same way, with the Syrian Kurds and “South Yemenis” abusing referenda beforehand in order to advance their claims to their own quasi-independent sub-state political entities afterward.

In both cases, “Syrian Kurdistan” and “South Yemen” would function as “states within a state” and crucial geostrategic springboards for their foreign military partners, which is the whole reason why outside forces are backing these schemes in the first place.

https://sputniknews.com/radio_context_countdown/201710201058399328-shoigu-israeli-poland-pro-turkey-pivot/

DISCLAIMER: The author writes for this publication in a private capacity which is unrepresentative of anyone or any organization except for his own personal views. Nothing written by the author should ever be conflated with the editorial views or official positions of any other media outlet or institution. 

Andrew Korybko is a political analyst, journalist and a regular contributor to several online journals, as well as a member of the expert council for the Institute of Strategic Studies and Predictions at the People’s Friendship University of Russia. He specializes in Russian affairs and geopolitics, specifically the US strategy in Eurasia.The views expressed in this article are author’s own. It does not reflect Global Village Space Editorial policy.