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Elections 2018: Who is winning & how much?


News Analysis |

Several Polls & Surveys appeared before the elections 2018, often widely different from each other. It’s also believed that some of these pollsters were aligned with one or the other political party. Gallup Pakistan of Ijaz Shafi Gillani has often been accused of being an instrument in the hands of Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N and in recent months Dawn Group, once the most trusted Pakistani media house has been perceived as totally partisan to Nawaz Sharif. These impressions totally discredit the polls conducted by Gallup and Herald Magazine (Dawn Group).

What do Surveys tell us about the Possible Election Results?

Ijaz Shafi’s Gallup paints a hilarious picture – totally disconnected with ground realities – in which Imran Khan’s PTI appears to be trailing Nawaz’s PML-N. Herald Magazine shows PTI leading PMLN by 3 seats. Topline and Pulse Consultants also show PTI leading by very small margins. However, all TV channels have conducted their own surveys and these have been discussed in detail with constituency Dynamics in TV programs.

Reports from polling stations show lots of excitement and outside Lahore, PML-N workers appear demoralized. PML-N has already demanded one hour extension on polling time from 6 pm to 7 pm. Election Commission has to decide if this is possible. Most media analysts consider this a political gimmick and sign of nervousness.

Read more: Post election behaviour: Burying the hatchet

Global Village Space Prediction on Election Results

Global Village Space team predicts that following scenario will emerge by 2am, when almost all results will be available.

PTI: 100-110

PMLN: 55-65

PPP: 30-40

Others: 55-85

Some other Surveys and their Predictions

Total Seats 272

Currency Market Associates (CMKA)

PTI = 107

PML-N = 79

PPP = 30

Others = 56

Topline 

 PTI = 85-95 seats

PML – N = 80-90 seats

PPP 35-40 seats

Others 47-72 seats

Pulse Consultants 

 PTI = 30 % or 82 seats

PML-N = 27% or 73 seats

PPP = 17 % or 46 seats

Others = 26% or 71 seats

Gallup Pakistan

 PTI = 25% or 68 seats

PML-N = 26% or 71 seats

PPP = 16% or 44 seats

Others = 33% or 90 seats

Herald Magazine

 PTI = 29% or 79 71 seats

PML-N = 25% or 68 seats

PPP = 20% or 54 seats

Others = 26% or 71 seats

Credit Suisse

 PTI = 92 seats

PML-N = 73 seats

PPP = 34 seats

Others = 73 seats

Coalition Government: A Probability?

In Pakistan, electable are vital in elections and all of the PPP and PML(N) electable have defected to PTI or become independent. Similarly, PTI’s strong performance in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has ensured that they will be the first party to win the province two times in a row. PTI have turned Khyber Pakhtunkhwa into a model province for the country, and have done a lot of work there including: Depoliticizing the police, establishing law and order, improved health and education, Reforming and modernization of madrasahs, Rs 5 lakh health insurance to 70% of the population and Improving the environment by undertaking the “billion tree tsunami project”.

Read more: Elections 2018: A massive political exercise

The MQM crumbling into factions in Karachi leaves a void in Karachi. This void is being hotly contested by PTI and PSP. While MQM factions won’t lose all their seats in Karachi and urban Sindh, they are likely to lose a significant amount of them, mostly to PTI, but a few to the PPP too.

PML(N) failure in Baluchistan has to lead to the formation of the BAP by PML(N) and PML(Q) defectors. This new party is filled with electables and seems likely to form Baluchistan government and win a good share of seats. This new party seems to have an inclination towards PTI, especially since the Senate elections and is looking like a viable ally for PTI.

Wait till 2 am tomorrow morning to know who will outsmart others in elections 2018.

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