News Analysis |
On a day when the annual parade to mark the beginning of Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988 was underway, four gunmen opened fire on the marching soldiers and civilians standing nearby resulting in the death of 25 people and wounding another 60. The attack is one of the deadly one in the history of Iranian Revolutionary Guard and is going to have a grave psychological impact on the nation and the armed forces of Persian state. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani before leaving for UN General Assembly session, while talking to media, said that the Arab states who acting as the stooges of the United States are behind the heinous attack.
A similar accusation was made by Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and ordered the law enforcement agencies to bring the culprits of the attack to justice. The responsibility of the attack was taken by an ethnic Arab group who goes by the name of Ahvaz National Resistance. The aim of the group is to form a separate state in the Khuzestan province of Iran, a region having the high concentration of underground crude oil. Khuzestan was the same region and because of its oil richness which led to the war between Iran and Iraq in the latter part of 20th century.
The coming times are going to be severe and they need all the sources which could help boost the patriotism within them as such eminent crisis need as much zeal at disposal as possible.
There are sporadic protests witnessed from the ethnic Arab minority living in the Khuzestan province but the armed resistance has not been able to carry out an attack before of the magnitude which was seen yesterday. Iran is already looking at the troubling times ahead as the U.S deadline for economic sanctions for all the entities having economic relations with Iran is approaching near. It is believed that if the U.S went on with the threat of absolute no wavier for any country, which would include China and India as well, then it will become impossible for Iran to sustain its economy.
The ray of hope in the form of European signatories of JCPOA is also diminishing as the U.S with all its economic hegemony is too strong a force to face. Then there was the indication coming from the statements of French President Emmanuel Macron who advised Iran to renegotiate its missile program to avoid the looming clouds of economic tensions. The consequence of uncertainty led to pulling out of investors and depreciation of Iranian currency which resulted in the hike prices of commodities.
There were reports of several outbursts of angry people who were finding it hard to make both ends meet. It presented a gloomy image of upcoming future where such protests could turn into a massive national movement which is precisely what the CIA intends to do with the classic regime change business it has mastered itself in. The indicators are pointing towards a pattern which is not very peculiar and now readily understandable for those who are looking closely.
In the underlying scenario, the attack on the Iranian soldiers and civilians, which include a four-year-old and a wheelchair-bound veteran, could just be something which the current government needs. Attack of this nature helps the governments establish a narrative shifting the focus of the state from welfare to national security. It has been the classic tool which has led nations in the history to bear the consequence of economic upheaval as the security becomes the first preference.
If Rouhani government is able to create such a narrative in the minds of people, it could avert the growing resentment of the masses because of the lack of basic facilities and continuously increasing trend of inflation. The attack is also going to justify the Revolutionary Guards’ increased influence in the country and in the region which is another plausible benefit ready to be extracted from the tragedy.
Under President Mehmood Ahmedi, the people of Iran have shown the resilience to tackle the economic barrier when it comes to the glory of the nation and its security. The coming times are going to be severe and they need all the sources which could help boost the patriotism within them as such eminent crisis need as much zeal at disposal as possible. Now it is up to President Rouhani that to what extent he can maneuver the situation in the favor of the government.