Confusion deepened Wednesday in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran attacked three ships near the crucial waterway whose closure has plunged the world into an energy crisis after tankers carrying a fifth of the world’s oil were blocked from using the channel.
The attacks unfolded just a day after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would extend the two-week ceasefire with Iran. The Islamic Republic said it fired on three outbound ships and seized two, calling it retaliation for the American naval blockade of Iranian ports and for the U.S. firing on and seizing an Iranian ship that did not stop when hailed by a vessel enforcing the blockade.
Read more: Iran attacks ship in Strait of Hormuz, complicating diplomatic efforts to resume talks
Attacks on shipping dwindled starting in mid-March as Iran imposed effective control over the strait. The mere risk of attack was enough to deter ships from trying to get through, while a few ships used an Iranian-approved lane near the coast. Iran demanded details on cargo, ownership and crew and, on at least some occasions, imposed a $1 per barrel tax on oil and oil products — or $2 million for a large tanker.
Here is a look at what’s known, and not known, about the situation in the strait:
After a pause, attacks on shipping have resumed
Iran’s semiofficial news agencies reported that the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard attacked a third ship Wednesday in the strait. Nour News, Fars and Mehr all reported the attack by the Guard on a vessel called the Euphoria. They said the vessel had become “stranded” on the Iranian coast, without elaborating. The Guard seized the other two ships that were attacked, Iranian state television separately reported.
That incident followed two ship attacks on Saturday that ended a lull that began in mid-March.
The seized ships were the Liberia-flagged Epaminondas and the Panama-flagged MSC Francesca, both container ships. It was not clear under what terms the ships were trying to pass the strait. The MSC shipping company did not answer an email asking about the vessel.
The attacks follow a sudden reversal in the Iranian stance over the weekend, as the Iranian foreign minister announced Friday that the strait was open, only to be contradicted the next day by the Revolutionary Guard. Six cruise ships stuck in the Persian Gulf since late February took advantage of the narrow window and slipped through the strait. But since then, traffic has dried up.
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The resumption of attacks reflects in part “genuine confusion … about when passage is permitted,” said Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.
Conflicting statements emerged from Trump about a full reopening and from the Iranian foreign minister about a limited reopening. Then things “shifted very quickly” Saturday when the Guard said the strait was closed.
Additionally, Soltvedt said, it’s in Iran’s interest to keep insurance premiums high with sporadic attacks. “Their main leverage in negotiations with the U.S. is being able to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and insurance is a big part of that.”
Some vessels have passed the Iranian vetting system, and some have relied on diplomatic requests from home governments. But hundreds of ships and thousands of crew members are still stuck.
