News Analysis |
Referring to recent actions taken by United States of America, vis-à-vis the brewing Iran crisis, U.S Defense Secretary has told reporters that the intended objective has been achieved. “I think our steps were very prudent, and we’ve put on hold the potential for attacks on Americans. And that’s what’s extremely important,” he said while talking to reporters.
Though it was not explicit, but it was sufficient to convey the message that United States is not interested to wager war with Iran. President Donald Trump has people like Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton in his team who are deemed extreme hardliners against Iran and were thought to be the reason why United States would militarily engage with Iran, if it did in the near future.
It is pertinent to mention here that despite U.S withdrawal of the JCPOA, Iran has continued to abide by the terms of agreement for months, as endorsed by IAEA.
Last week an air was created that Iran is up to any adventure against the U.S assets and therefore anti-missile batteries, along with two nuclear-capable B-52 bombers, were deployed to show the U.S military strength. Iran responded with the announcement that it is increasing the production of low enriched uranium, a calibrated move to show the world that if the country’s economy is not given passage, it would once again pursue the nuclear ambition.
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It is pertinent to mention here that despite U.S withdrawal and virtual enunciation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has continued to abide by the terms of agreement for months, as endorsed by International Atomic Energy Commission (IAEA).
United States seems desperate with lack of options against Iran
The United States of America wants Iran to scale back from its ballistic missile program and limit its influence in the Middle East where it poses a potential threat to geopolitical objectives of the United States and its allies, Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Iran responded with the announcement that it is increasing the production of low enriched uranium.
But it is clear by now that the real reason is to push Iran’s economy to the brink of collapse, resulting in massive Arab-Spring like internal protests leading to regime change in Iran. It has been something which the United States intended to do for a very long time and the incumbent National Security Advisor, John Bolton, kept propagating in private gatherings and lectures at universities.
After pulling out of JCPOA, the United States wanted to tighten the noose via economic pressure but rest of the world, especially European signatories of the Iran nuclear deal, were not up to the task. The pressure was mounting over the Trump administration to look for other options which resulted in the heightened tensions and deployment of bombers.
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How did Iran manage to avert the crisis?
Iran, being below par the military might of the United States, has two tactical advantages which it used at the right moment to extract the maximum benefit. First is the threat of resuming the nuclear program which would not be allowed by major states of the world and eventually the United States would have to step back. The other more significant edge, which is precisely the reason why United States pulled out of nuclear deal, is the extensive network of Iranian proxies in countries like Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.
The United States of America wants Iran to scale back from its ballistic missile program and limit its influence in the Middle East where it poses a potential threat to geopolitical.
These militias provide an extension to Iran’s military outreach beyond its water and the recent attack on 4 oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz at Fujairah is widely believed to be conducted by one of Iran’s proxies at its behest. A few days ago, the U.S embassy in Iraq also came under attack as rockets landed near the building. These proxy militias, which provide Iran with plausible deniability, have the potential to wreak havoc on the U.S assets in the Middle East and surrounding regions.
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The situation was not really promising for the United States to push for confrontation hence Trump administration decided to go for de-escalation. Donald Trump has held the stance that wars all around the world are not viable as they deplete precious resources. Apparently, he has been able to get better of his aides and recently ensured the pentagon that he is not going to war with Iran. In future, the tensions are further expected to decrease between both countries.