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Thursday, July 18, 2024

Will US exit lead to another civil war in Afghanistan?

According to Hidayat Nasar, US exit can lead to a civil war in Afghanistan as the withdrawal will create a vacuum for the Taliban to take over the war-torn country.

From the withdrawal of US military forces to the arduous first phase of negotiations and from the intra-Afghan peace talks to the maximalist behavior of Taliban, there lies a bewildering lie and deception.

With the last hazardous juncture removed, the process of peace was moved to the war-torn country, where the conservative Taliban and the Elected government of Ashraf Ghani held horns to settle the dust of political fragmentation.

Read more: Ashraf Ghani vs Abdullah Abdullah: Afghanistan’s crisis a comedy show!

The long-lasting negotiations bore no fruitful results as there were several cases of violence where more than 120 people were killed among which were paramilitary force men and civilians.

This is a huge blow to the peace talks and surely a triumph for the spoilers. The affected provinces were Baghlan, Takhar, Uruzgan, and Helmand. The intra-Afghan talks which started on 12 September have failed to bring about drastic changes i.e., the enforcement of ceasefire in order to swiftly put the war-torn country on the track of prosperity and get rid of internal and external conflicts.

Read more: Afghan peace talks continue, so does the violence

President Joe Biden announced the withdrawal of US military forces in September this year. We delivered justice to Bin Laden a decade ago,” he said. “And we’ve stayed in Afghanistan for a decade since. Since then, our reasons for remaining in Afghanistan have become increasingly unclear.”

Britain is also planning to pull out its 750 military forces from Afghanistan at the same time, but the withdrawal could lead to a civil war as the country remains deeply divided with the Taliban controlling key areas. The victory, they believe is theirs, as American troops decided to leave Afghanistan.

Read more: Delayed US withdrawal necessary for peace in Afghanistan

What does US exit mean for the Taliban?

Taliban have promised to create an Islamic state. Moreover, the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan can create a vacuum for the terrorist organization to take over the war-torn country as ISIS seized the opportunity in Iraq after the withdrawal of the US.

The political milieu will once again deteriorate and the masses will be left to the mercy of global interference. Also, the Taliban may feel less impetus to go to the negotiating table as a result of this unconditional withdrawal.

Read more: Taliban are not sticking to the promises made in the Afghan peace deal: Pentagon

If civil war broke out in Afghanistan, the progress made for women will also be at risk, as the radical forces don’t want them to entertain political and humanitarian practices rather, they will stress limiting women to a shuttlecock burqa.

The dread is that the American leave will prompt breakdown of the frail Afghan government – there is no confidence in the Afghan armed forces – and a developing common conflict with the Taliban can make the way for a resurgence of al-Qaeda and a continued psychological militant danger.

Read more: Afghan forces mistakenly kill civilians, their credibility under question

Notwithstanding, the Taliban vows not to reestablish support for Al-Qaeda, unless there is proof of its proceedings with a presence on the ground.

The power-sharing game

Another dangling sword is the menace of power-sharing. It will be impossible to finalize the rules of negotiations for power-sharing until the internal conflicts are brought to a halt.

The radical and conservative group of Taliban led by Mula Ghani Baradar has insisted on the establishment of an Islamic system of governance with strict laws for crimes. They rejected the current system of Government branding it to be the one installed by America and the west.

Read more: Russia supports US plan for Taliban role in interim Afghan govt

Afghanistan has been the graveyard of empires but the quest for grabbing the upper Echelon of power by the conservative Taliban will bring havoc and catastrophe. In the midst of such uncertainty and political chaos, once again the masses will be the victims of this power-sharing game.

The situation is dire. Distrust, insecurity, and fear are rampant.

Washington must stick to the new date and ensure the process is not delayed further. And while the Taliban are talking tough about the latest development, they must show flexibility and continue to negotiate with the government in Kabul.

Read more: Mujahideen leader Hekmatyar dubs intra-Afghan peace talks ‘failed’

Moreover, following democratic credentials and having patience in listening to the rational and reasonable demands of one another will yield better results.

With the last hitch removed, the elusive Afghan dialogue now needs to be concluded fairly, impartially, and peacefully in order to put an end to the decade’s long protracted dispute.

May peace prevail in Afghanistan. May the day of peace and prosperity hasten in the roof of the world.

The author can be reached at: atizazkhan298@gmail.com. The views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Global Village Space.