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Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Diplomacy: a dead end for America to counter China and Russia in Iran?

The author elaborates how the US is slowly losing influence in the Middle East as Iran sides with China and Russia. According to the author, Trump's ostracization of America from international agreements has greatly impacted US diplomacy.

Major power tussle is palpable to analysts’ observation, whenever the vacuum occurs anywhere across the world. The US was mired in turmoil, domestically and internationally as the Republicans’ Donald Trump’s candour yielded.

Democratic leader, Joe Biden is expected much, to make the US greater again, resuscitate the lost influence of the US across the world, but diplomatically, which the previous administration lacked.

National Security Strategy of America puts Iran as an existential threat to the US by moulding public opinion and allowing the mighty democracy to justify realistic actions against aggressor Iran.

Two states faced being on the verge of war under the Trump administration, who could win is not worth pondering, seeing the relative power capability of both states, but yes, the devastation could have been mutual, far beyond territorial peripheries.

Read more: Trump steps up pressure on Iran with more troops and sanctions

As per the declinists in the US and international policy-making sphere measure, the hegemon US’ power is declining against exceptionalists perceptions and the solution is to get out of extra-regional affairs, indulging in internal balancing tenaciously.

The US needs diplomacy to counter China and Russia in Iran, does not matter if it needs the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Alliances creating challenges

Whenever the major power competition arises, the value of middle powers, especially the regional influencers, surge. Iran, indeed, if it had not been countered befittingly against its nuclear program by the US, it could be a regional power, a major one in West Asia, against American interest.

Read more: US & Israel ramp up pressure on Iran to dismantle nuclear program

As John Mearsheimer said that the apogee is for those who rule the region, when it’s done, the power of others is countered by creating challengers in their region, like the US alliance with India, Japan, Australia against China, and Israel in the Middle East.

However, times have changed. The US is not alone now in pursuing its interest in the Middle East, as China and Russia are now trustworthy more than the US. The regional stakeholders should be ready for bidding. Iran, though curtailed befittingly should be seen through a diplomatic lens as it can prove a good balancer against other major powers.

Iran warning the US

From JCPOA, the US ebbed its commitments, spurring Iran to aggrandize its nuclear program. International Atomic Energy Agency has reported a surge in Uranium enrichment in Iran, far beyond the limit set by JCPOA. JCPOA was signed between Iran and p5+1, also called Iran Nuclear Deal, allowing Iran to use nuclear material for a useful purpose.

Read more: Iran to disregard all restrictions on its Nuclear Program and will forego limit on centrifuges in the…

Iran also wishes to have good bilateral relations with the Biden administration, but to be expected more, is not what Iran is promulgating. Tit for tat is what Iran will follow in the future.

Iran has also revealed its hidden military bases where American and Israeli flags were printed on the ground so they could walk over it, showing the apex of animosity America will face against misadventure.

Can Biden revive US diplomacy?

Middle Eastern countries are leaning more to be allied with China and Russia. The US’ so-called struggle to bring democracy in the Middle Eastern countries heinously failed, yielding only the devastation inside these states.

Joe Biden is a mature personality. Scholars believe that the democratic administration in the US will resuscitate its cauldron and will manoeuvre its international position.

Trump ostracized the US from international agreements, hurting its alliance by mocking them as he did with Japan, South Korea, and Germany over the stationing of American troops.

Read more: Trump’s hawkish diplomacy may compel Tehran to go nuclear

Biden is the remedy and will balance the US, internally and externally. Committed to leaving Afghanistan, either it happens or not, Biden is respecting its commitments and allies, and it is good for the US, inductively.

As Fareed Zakaria says the future would be of multilateralism, and America must get down of its throne, must engage with the regional states to assure mutual prosperity.

A dead-end for the US

In Middle Eastern power politics, the say of Saudi Arabia is declining, as the world is seeing the ball in Iran’s court, indulging effectively in regional politics and shaping it befittingly. If the US wants to be relevant in Middle Eastern power politics, the way resides through Iran.

However, the Middle East is not the only region where major powers’ competition is reviving; in the Arctic also, Russia, the US, and China are securitizing the interests. When Russia is increasing military footprints there in the Arctic, the US has also leased two ice breakers to its North Atlantic and Arctic Operations fleet to be relevant against the competitors.

Read more: The Arctic: Great powers & their geopolitical interests

The world is going to face major power competition, and for the US, diplomacy is the dead end.

The author is a Junior Research Associate at the Maritime Study Forum and sub-editor of Strategic Times magazine. The views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Global Village Space.