Foreign military strikes on Iran have intensified debate over the country’s political stability, exposing deep divisions within society about the regime and the cost of war.
Fatemeh Aman argues that history offers no reliable model where foreign military force reshapes a complex state like Iran without severe, unpredictable social damage.
In Iran, subsidy reform is economically necessary but politically perilous because cheap essentials underpin daily survival amid inflation and low trust.
India is highly vulnerable to Gulf instability due to its heavy energy reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, exposing it to inflation, trade disruptions, and risks to its diaspora.
Despite renewed diplomatic activity, Iran’s influence in Central Asia remains limited, with cultural ties failing to translate into strategic power. Decades of sanctions, policy inconsistency, and competition from stronger actors have left Tehran a secondary regional player.
India’s growing use of Oman’s Duqm port provides a politically safer, sanctions-insulated hub for its western Indian Ocean operations, reducing reliance on Iran’s Chabahar without replacing its unique overland access to Central Asia.
Iran’s BRICS membership has given Tehran symbolic legitimacy but little practical economic relief, as sanctions, dependency on China, and limited access to BRICS financial mechanisms continue to constrain its leverage.
