The dynamics of world order and politics change with the rise and fall of great powers, whenever a global actor rises or falls in the global system, the changes occur in the global power structure, interest, and players. Hence, leading towards the tensions get to rise between the emerging and global power over the transition of power. None of the actors or states can evade this power-changing transformation.
The transition of power has always been painful and bloody. In the retrospect, power transition had befallen either civilizations or nation-states with the painful tragedy of war and conflict. For instance, the power transition from Greeks to Romans, Romans to Muslims, and from Muslims to British, and the most recent from the UK to the US, was concluded with war and vandalization.
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Understanding the matter better
In the contemporary scenario, the US and China are at crossroads over attaining and retaining global supremacy. The US has enjoyed a long time being the international dominant actor after the end of the Cold war, however, the Chinese rise as the major economic superpower is giving nightmares to the US with the fear of being replaced as a global hegemon. US and China, both will get their daggers drawn to redefine the power structure, values, and interests that may befit their interest.
Keeping in view the current context, the change in the global order is majorly triggered by the emerging economies. Many of the countries in Asia have achieved remarkable economic growth in the last decades, and that has reorchestrated the world order.
One of the renowned writers Parag Khanna in his book ‘The Future is Asian’ writes that in the 19th century the power structure was Europeanized, in the 20th century the structure become Americanized, and now it’s heading toward becoming Asianized. With the change in the power structure, the eventual change will occur in the power dynamics of different regions. With the popping up of developed economies, the alliance structure is also transforming, one of the features that are notable across the regions is an alteration towards multilateralism: a small group of countries amassed to achieve limited strategic objectives.
The way forward
However, if we delve into it, we would see that this trend is largely driven by the snowballing assertiveness of ‘challenger states’ such as China, Russia, Iran, and Turkey, whose strategic behavior is insufficiently compromised or deterred by already existing larger alliances or security pacts, prompting the perception that increased strategic agility is required, perhaps through ‘special purpose strategic vehicles’.
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It is of no doubt that the rise of Asian economies in the world is recasting the map of the world. The increasing transnational Relationships and new flows of finance, trade, technology, and energy have created three new strategic geographies which are already evading the shadow of transatlantic arrangements. They essentially embody the collision of erstwhile political constructs – and their management entails new ideas, nimble institutions, and fluid partnerships.
- The Indo-Pacific
The first of three strategic Geographies is Indo-pacific, which is already doing well. Primarily, it’s the union of the Indian and Pacific oceans and is a construct beefed by the rise of China but defined in equal measure by regional actors responding to Beijing’s proposition. It is being orchestrated that Maritime Asia is now grander than the US, ASEAN and China– earlier organized under the Asia-Pacific construct. Its borders aren’t confined to the eastern Indian ocean. From Nantucket to Nairobi, conversations on security, development and trade in this region will now entail actors/states from three continents.
- Eurasia
The second in the strategic Geographies is the merger of Europe and Asia into one connected Strategic System: Eurasia. It’s actually an old idea but now has a new meaning. The amalgamation of markets and communities from these once separated geographies is creating a new super-continental-sized interdependence.
However, this interdependence is not without purpose: China’s shadow is looming over Europe and its vow to prosper the continent has proved to be daunting to resist. In the meanwhile, Russia is orchestrating a new zeal to reclaim its place as the archetypical Eurasian player and members of NATO continue to influence their future role in the region. As these geopolitical plates both clash and merge, it is clear that East and West will set new terms of engagement and innately a new setting would surface.
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- The Arctic
Previously the arctic wasn’t given any heed but the daunting effects of climate change have given it a stronger jolt and have placed it as pertinent geography that will play a vital role in the global power struggle. For the first time in history, the politics of the Atlantic and pacific will be merged, even as it stimulates a clash between the arrangements that exist in these regions. The Northern Sea Route has been a tempting theory; global warming is revitalizing it as reality.
Maersk, a global shipping company has completed its first-ever voyage along with this, remained unassisted by the ice breaker which is evidently beefing up the strategic importance of the arctic and will culminate a new era and fraction for wealth distribution. The emergence of this geography, however, will be far from frictionless and may well create a new distribution of wealth and power in the region.
The writer is volunteering as Member Youth Parliament for PILDAT. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Global Village Space.