What we know and don’t know about how Iran uses asymmetric warfare

The leaders of Britain and the United States have suggested, without giving evidence, that Iran played a role in two major security incidents this week, the arrests near a U.S.-run military base in England used in the war against Tehran and the attack in the cockpit of an Israel-bound plane.

By News Desk
By News Desk
US Pakistan airspace

The leaders of Britain and the United States have suggested, without giving evidence, that Iran played a role in two major security incidents this week, the arrests near a U.S.-run military base in England used in the war against Tehran and the attack in the cockpit of an Israel-bound plane.

As of Friday, no confirmed connection to the Islamic Republic had emerged. Britain has not made public any evidence linking Iran to the air-base arrests on terrorism-related charges. And an official who was not authorized to speak to the media said there is currently no evidence of a link between Iran and the cockpit attack.

The investigations are in the early stages. If an Iranian link to the Britain arrests is confirmed, it would underline a strategy that Iran’s government has promoted for decades, using smaller, relatively low-cost attacks to needle and disrupt more powerful adversaries and their economies while causing friction among allies. That strategy is currently on display in the Strait of Hormuz.

If it is confirmed that Iran played a role in targeting the FlyDubai flight, that would represent a dangerous new level in that approach.

Iran denies any involvement

Iran has denied involvement in Sunday’s arrests close to the RAF Fairford air base, which has been used by U.S. bombers to strike Iran. Iranian leaders summoned Britain’s ambassador and called on the British government to provide an official explanation.

Police on Thursday arrested a 25-year-old dual U.K.-Iranian citizen on suspicion of plotting a terror attack, while five other suspects were released on bail. Detectives said they found a quantity of an accelerant — gasoline — in vans near the air base, but no explosives.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said the U.K. sees “strong indications” that Iran played a part in the incident but did not provide details.

In the FlyDubai attack, Iran has not commented on U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the co-pilot might have links to Iran. Asked whether he had been briefed about any links, Trump said, “I would say the answer, based on what I’m hearing, is yes, but we’re working on it right now.” He did not elaborate.

But even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, one of the world’s most vocal critics of Iran, has said it’s too soon to say.

With governments not sharing key details — such as suspects’ identities or possible motives, which are not made public during active police investigations in Britain — speculation risks filling the void.

“When you have this kind of gray area where evidence is lacking, there’s a tendency, especially (by) politicians, the media, etc., to attribute everything to Iran,” said Antonio Giustozzi, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense think tank. “And much of it is true, but not necessarily all of it is true.”

He said the Iranians do not deny that they have cells abroad.

Incidents such as the one at RAF Fairford appear to fit a pattern of attacks designed to apply pressure and signal to U.S. allies that “in this case we did not do anything too terrible, but it wouldn’t be difficult to do something terrible,” Giustozzi said.

He doubted, however, that Iran was involved in the FlyDubai incident: “In terms of strategy, dragging Israel in now brings zero benefit to Iran and only complicates the situation.”

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