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PBS releases CPI inflation in Sept 22, giving hints for Oct data

Tahir Abbas, Head of Research at Arif Habib Limited, noted that if the government had not offered electricity relief, the September inflation figure would have been 26.5 percent.

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According to the latest data shared by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) for the month of September 2022, Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation increased to 23.2 percent on year-on-year basis as compared to an increase of 27.3 percent in the previous month and 9.0 percent in September 2021. On month-on-month basis, inflation in September 22 fell by 1.15 percent.

Read more: SPI-based inflation rises to 30.62pc YoY

According to Arif Habib Limited, this takes average inflation in first quarter of FY23 to 25.11 percent compared to 8.58 percent in same quarter FY22.

Looking at the CPI breakdown given by the AHL, food inflation reported sharp increase of 5.4 percent on month-on-month basis.

Food inflation increased in Pakistan as a result of widespread flooding that devastated crops and farmlands. Initially, the accident caused tomato and onion prices to rise significantly. However, the government resorted to importing the two items from abroad, which alleviated some of the burden.

Read more: Flash floods and food shortages: issuing import permits for onions and tomatoes

Furthermore, the drop in global oil prices had no contribution in the decline in inflation because the relief was not passed on to the people in September. The government extended the relief for the first two weeks of October; thus it will be reflected in this month’s CPI data.

Tahir Abbas, Head of Research at Arif Habib Limited, noted that if the government had not offered electricity relief, the September inflation figure would have been 26.5 percent.

The government of Pakistan postponed FCA for households consuming less than 200 units of power per month at the end of August. Later, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif broadened the relief package to include households that consume 300 or fewer units per month.

Read more: Reduction in petroleum prices announced

Inflation in brief

In urban areas, CPI inflation increased to 21.2 percent on year-on-year basis in Sep 2022 as compared to an increase of 26.2 percent in the previous month and 9.1 percent in Sep 2021.

On month-on-month basis, it decreased by 2.1 percent in Sep 2022 as compared to an increase of 2.6 percent in the previous month and an increase of 2.0 percent in Sep 2021.

However, increase in CPI inflation in rural areas was higher than in urban areas. It increased to 26.1 percent on year-on-year basis in Sep 2022 as compared to an increase of 28.8 percent in the previous month and 8.8 percent in Sep 2021.

On month-on-month basis, it increased by 0.2 percent in Sep 2022 as compared to an increase of 2.2 percent in the previous month and an increase of 2.3 percent in Sep 2021.