On August 6, 1945, the first nuclear bomb was dropped on the city of Hiroshima, Japan by the United States of America. The cloud was seen for miles and the flash of the explosion across the globe.
As radioactive fallout gradually settled onto the city’s ruins, a realization dawned in the global halls of power, that things would never be the same. This devastating weapon could not be stopped and its effects were lasting and without hope of mitigation by known science. No one from the Ancient Sun Tzu to the venerable Prussian general Clausewitz could account for such a complicated and lasting kink in the equation of armed conflict. The pall of nuclear war hung over the globe.
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Bipolar world: a rational world order?
But humanity evolved as it always has and worked its way around a full-blown nuclear war. The USA and the USSR, then the grand masters of a bi-polar world worked actively to avoid any situation that would develop into a nuclear exchange. Both blocs worked hard to mitigate any misunderstandings and constructed a network of internationally binding treaties for the control, use and proliferation of nuclear materials.
Both powers engaged extensively in proxy wars, spycraft, and politicking as an alternative to direct conflict but always shied away from turning the cold war hot. These were actions of a rational world order where both powers were aware of the impact of ‘Mutual Assured Destruction’ or M.A.D.
Impact of radical Republican governments on nuclear order
William Walker; a renowned nuclear policy researcher beautifully described the process as “Nuclear Enlightenment” in his 2007 paper. Walker, however, laments in an older paper “Nuclear Order & Disorder” that since the advent of radical Republican governments this order has been upset.
What’s more worrying is that instead of realizing the danger of playing with nuclear fire, Modi contemplated a limited nuclear strike, “Night of Murder” in his own words against Pakistan
He states that influential republicans such as the Bush duo, John Bolton and Newt Gingrich have lobbied within their party to abandon this carefully nurtured world order and have used the “irrational foes” facing America as the reason of this abandonment and have therefore moved the world in a dangerous and uncertain direction.
Even if one takes Walker’s argument with a grain of salt, we can to some extent see why these radicals argue that this order has been lost since the collapse of the USSR. The non-state actor now poses a threat to the existence of civilization as we know it and being irrational these actors don’t give a wooden nickel about what international law holds sacrosanct.
But when one looks closely, it turns out that these very radicals are the promoters of nuclear cooperation and ever-deepening military ties of the US with an increasingly irrational actor ‘India’. India, since Narendra Modi’s election, has shown itself to be an emerging superpower which trivializes the threat of nuclear exchange with its neighbours.
US allowed rogue actors in India for containing China
This increasingly radical US has allowed rogue actors like India’s Narendra Modi to trivialize the spectre of M.A.D (Mutual Assured Destruction). This approach complements the US’s China containment policy and Narendra Modi has done so with chest-thumping, anti-Muslim rhetoric and recruiting known hate mongers like Amit Shah and Adityanath for high office.
These men are known hate mongers and their sole aim in life is to cleanse the subcontinent of all Muslims and minorities. The Indian government has allowed organized death rallies to take place which have resulted in the deaths of countless minority citizens in India.
Modi has also upended the delicate diplomatic balance of the subcontinent by revoking the special status of Kashmir. By abrogating article 370 of the Indian Constitution, Modi has closed all possibilities of a peaceful and mutually acceptable resolution of the Kashmir issue.
Article 51 of the United Nations Charter grants Member States the right to defend themselves if they come under armed attack. Yet India directly assails the Line of Control on a daily basis
Modi is playing with fire
What’s more, Modi attempted to attack Pakistani territory and instead of success ended up giving an Indian Air Force pilot into Pakistani custody. What’s more worrying is that instead of realizing the danger of playing with nuclear fire, Modi contemplated a limited nuclear strike, “Night of Murder” in his own words against Pakistan.
Today we stand on the precipice of a full blown war with a neighbouring power that is unable to fathom the consequences of a nuclear war. Modi’s India trivializes the dangers of a war with Pakistan. India regularly accuses Pakistan of ascribing to the first use doctrine where in case of escalating war Pakistan would be the initiator of a nuclear exchange.
Modi forgets that Pakistan is a rational actor whose sole reason for developing nuclear deterrence is to stop India from practicing its infamous “Cold Start” military doctrine. Don’t believe me? Just take a look at our delivery technology and any analyst will agree that our policy does not threaten the globe but rather aims to deter and strike at India only. Pakistan’s nuclear program is an answer to India’s chauvinism and no more.
Pakistan has good reason to stick to the first use policy. During 1971 India managed to sever Pakistan’s Eastern province by aiding local rebels and in the end, the Indian army entered the theatre in full view of the world to dealt the killing blow. After the events of 71 Pakistan’s policymakers were hit with a harsh reality, that atoms for peace would indeed be needed to keep India at bay.
The choice is theirs whether they want to save the world and sanction Modi’s India and bring his ambitions to heel. Or prepare for a nuclear war which will wipe out the whole world
Article 51 of the United Nations Charter grants the Member States the right to defend themselves if they come under armed attack. Yet India directly violates the Line of Control on a daily basis. As Modi has tightened his grip on power Indian aggression has steadily escalated.
The so-called “Deep Strike” and the Abhinandan episode are fresh in the minds of the strategic world. Now India has threatened to conduct more attacks in Pakistani territory even though both nations have the ability to annihilate each other. What’s more they have also started to clash with the Chinese military and Nepal.
Time to act for the western world is NOW!
These actions show how India as a state has become an unhinged beast under Narendra Modi. A beast pampered and spoiled by the European Union and the US as part of their China containment policy. The scary part is that the beast possesses a powerful nuclear arsenal.
Now the burden falls on the civilized nations of the west. The choice is theirs whether they want to save the world and sanction Modi’s India and bring his ambitions to heel. Or prepare for a nuclear war which will wipe out the whole world. For whatever abilities Mr. Trump and Gingrich might have politically, they certainly cannot reverse the damage wreaked by a nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India.
The author is a practicing lawyer based in Multan whose studies have a special focus on Blockchain Technology, Legal and Public Policy, and strategic studies. He may be reached via email at firstname.lastname@example.org. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Global Village Space.