By-elections in Punjab on July 17 proved to be unprecedented in Pakistan’s history. PTI won fifteen seats out of the twenty in by-elections, with PML-N winning only four. Before the elections, there was widespread concern expressed across PTI leadership that they would see massive electoral rigging against the party to ensure it loses. Fawad Chaudhury, PTI’s former Information minister, warned of ‘dandla’ (indicting a bigger scale rigging than usual) that would need to stop PTI from winning. Even a day before the elections, Imran Khan expressed disappointment if the establishment played any part in the polls to defeat the party.
PTI held several rallies post-Eid, and coming up to the elections, Imran Khan talked of the activities of two significant people playing a role from the establishment in rigging or trying to defeat PTI. He termed them Mr. X and Mr. Y, situated in Multan and Lahore. While he did not mention names, social media highlighted the role of two ISI sector commanders in these respective towns. Along with them, PTI highlighted that ROs and Punjab bureaucracy would be used to ensure that PML-N won the election. Going into the polls, Analysts fully aware of the potential rigging situation shared the on-ground scenario as PTI winning 15-18 seats if a full and fair election was held. Dismissal of Assemblies seems inevitable now, with a general election expected to be called for October or November.
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Both parties (PML-N vs. PTI) clashed to bag Pakistan’s most populous and politically significant province, which has never faced unprecedented constitutional issues in the country’s history. The constitutional crisis was sparked when PTI lost its majority in the Punjab Assembly in April, after 25 of its lawmakers sided with its rival, the PML-N, in the election for chief minister. In the by-elections, twenty provincial constituencies were on the ballot after the Election Commission unseated 25 MPAs for voting against party lines. Of the 25, five lawmakers were on reserved seats and 20 on contestable seats. Both the PTI and the PML-N dueled in these constituencies. It is essential to mention that in the last general elections held in 2018, of the 20 MPAs who won the polls, ten contested as independent candidates and later joined the PTI due to the efforts of businessman and politician Jahangir Khan Tareen.
Through a sweeping victory, the PTI now has sufficient votes to bring in its Chief Minister in the July 22 election to be held (unless, as Pakistan’s history has shown in the past and unknown power prevails otherwise). PTI is expected to use its CM (whoever this may be – with Pervaiz Elahi still as the current favorite) to dismiss Punjab Assembly.
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PTI fully charged up and motivated its voters, who are sold on Imran Khan’s narrative of a foreign conspiracy and regime change. These voters gave a tough time to the PML-N in constituencies that all fall in urban/semi-urban areas by turning up in large numbers on the day of the election. Many young voters came, and voter turnout was unusually high for by-elections.