Russia-Ukrainian war, or what should be called Russian incursion into Ukraine, is reminiscent of the famous phrase that was used to describe World War 1: A Tragedy of Miscalculations. However, it would not be right to call it a tragedy of miscalculations; rather, the apt title should be “A Tragedy of Overconfident Miscalculations”. It then begs the answer: which actor(s) were most overconfident in this ill-fated episode?
To answer this question, we have to see who the most important actors in this conflict are. Naturally, Ukraine is the most important and perhaps the most unfortunate actor in this tragic episode. It is the people of Ukraine who are going to bear the cost of these overconfident choices. Russia, the United States (US), and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are the other important players in this geostrategic play. Yet, it is a safe bet to say that it is the US whose opinion and decision always prevails in the decision-making process of NATO.
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Looking back at the excerpts from history
What are some of the events that led to the breakout of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, both of whom were the founding members of the erstwhile Soviet Union? Firstly, Ukraine’s bid to join the EU played an important role in infuriating Russia. Secondly, Ukraine’s Orange Revolution that overthrew a pro-Russian government and brought into power a pro-American leader widened the distance between Ukraine and Russia.
Lastly, Ukraine’s decision to join NATO and the latter’s willingness to include Ukraine into its fold proved to be the final nail in the coffin. None of this exonerates Russia and its megalomaniac head of state of its unjustified, unlawful, and illegal attack on Ukraine. However, as students of International Relations (IR), we have to see the reasons that pushed Russia to the wall and forced it to take extreme measures.
Russia realized very well that if Ukraine was to become a part of NATO, it would bring its arch-enemy to its front door. One of the fundamentals of IR is that every state attempts to keep the maximum distance from its enemy. But most importantly, every state would go to any extent to preclude its enemy from coming at its front door, something that Russia realized very well. Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO would have validated Russia’s fears to which Russia responded by attacking Ukraine.
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Why is Russia against Ukraine joining NATO?
Ukraine’s inclusion into NATO would have left Russia with the insecurity of an indefensible open plain between Russia and Ukraine. This would also have threatened Russia’s control of Crimea, part of the Ukrainian territory that Russia recently annexed. Moreover, there were fears in Russian strategic think tanks that if Ukraine got the security assurances by getting into NATO, it would give other Russian allies (like Belarus) an incentive to join the military pact. These reasons heightened Russian fears and intensified her security paranoia that ultimately led to the Russian incursion into Ukraine.
The question arises then why did Ukraine do nothing to mollify Russia or secure its sovereignty by paying some opportunity costs. In a world where there is no international government to appeal against an aggressor or a transgressor of international law, every country is on its own in self-help, anarchic system. As insensitive and dispassionate as it may sound, Ukraine should have realized that it was no match for the Russian military machine. Most importantly, it should have taken notice of its surroundings and concluded that being an unfortunate neighbor of an imperialist Russia, it would be on its own in this self-help system to fight the war.
Although its Western allies gave Ukraine guarantees and assurances that it would be provided with military and financial aid; It is painfully obvious that Ukraine is on its own right now. This does not mean that any other nation backed out of its commitment; it is just the harsh reality of international politics. No nation can sacrifice and compromise its interest for the security of any other nation. One of the most important duties of any state is protecting its vital interests, security, and people. Therefore, it is unlikely that any nation is going to step up and physically help Ukraine fight Russia.
Both Ukraine and the US were overconfident that they could prevail in this situation. The US seemed adamant about showing its dominance by refusing to give up on any Russian demands, and Ukraine had confidence in its allies’ guarantees. Russia was also overconfident that it would come out of this adventure unscathed and unharmed. The valiant resistance must have shattered the Russian confidence that the people of Ukraine have shown in front of these blatant acts of aggression.
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Russia has further weakened its international standing, a price of which it is going to pay in the form of excruciating economic sanctions. It is painfully obvious for Russia that it has become a pariah in the international world. These acts of naked aggression have left the country diplomatically isolated in Europe. Hence, it can be said that this war was a result of overconfident miscalculations by Ukraine, Russia, and the US, all of whom are going to pay a price for it.
Despite this pessimistic observation of IR theorists, Ukrainian resistance has changed the equation for every actor. Russia realizes very well that this attack is not going to be a piece of cake. Ukrainians mean business and they are here to fight. It has also changed the possible scenarios for Russia. Complete invasion of the country and controlling it militarily does not seem to be a plausible option for Russia now. It cannot station its forces freely in a country where the public opinion is staunchly against the occupier.
Therefore, the only plausible solution right now is for US and Russia to get on the table and declare that Ukraine is going to be a neutral country with no specific allegiance to either Russia or to the Western bloc. This is the only solution that can save the territorial integrity and political independence of Ukraine. Furthermore, it is imperative that the active military conflict is brought to a halt so that the civilian population of Ukraine does not keep paying the price of these overconfident miscalculations
The writer is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Utah, USA. The views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Global Village Space.Â